Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

The latest MPR/Humphrey Institute poll does little to reverse a continuing trend; support is leaning away from both Horner and Emmer.

Key Findings

• Dayton's lead rests on engaging Democrats, broadening his coalition more than Emmer, his economic populism, and localizing the election to capitalize on the unpopularity of Governor Tim Pawlenty.

• Dayton has the advantage among voters who are leaning toward a candidate but his support is not as firm as Emmer's and Horner's support is soft.

• Emmer's greatest opportunity is to reframe the election as a national referendum on President Barack Obama and the nation's direction.