Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

On the 7^th the Pioneer Press published a poll by Decision Resource LTD that lead to a compliant (multiple complaints actually) by the GOP against the Horner Campaign. So what did we learn specifically about the election, the answer to those who don't watch politics close might be kind of shocking, nothing, or at least nothing about the actual election if you will accept that. We learn a little bit about the state of the people of Minnesota collectively, but the information released by the poll doesn't really tell us much new information on the election.

How is the poll different than the two earlier polls, first we don't get the demographic information (publically) that the two previous polls gave us, which is a key to understanding what the poll is telling us. Now I am told that information exists and people who pay Decision Resources LTD actually get to see it, but those of us on the sideline haven't or won't. As with the other polls, this is a first poll, a starting point for what polls in a few weeks look like, and that matters more.

This poll however is getting a lot more attention because of the complaint filed by the GOP. IS that a good or bad thing? For the GOP it is a relatively inexpensive way to attempt to discredit you opponent, if it works great if not the GOP hasn't really invested anything into it. Like others are saying the GOP knew they misfiled the compliant, and they did it intentionally. By misfiling the compliant they keep the credibility of the compliant in peoples' minds and more importantly they are attempting to keep the IP talking about how the information is in accurate as presented by the GOP, rather than focusing on fund raising and other strategic discussions. However there is more public backlash against the GOP this time around than actions like this have been in the past, something the GOP will need to keep in the back of their mind when the next issue pops up.

The GOP compliant I think also highlights how the GOP plans on running its campaign, or at least the negative part of the campaign. Between now and the Primary Emmer's team will be focusing on the Horner's campaign. After the Primary they will turn their attention to the winner of the DFL primary. Will the strategy work, my thoughts on that later.

Tom Horner's name is getting out there, but getting to 15% is the easy part, it's getting to 20%, 25% and 35% that is the hard part. The Horner's campaign ability to raise money will be tied to where the campaign is in terms of percentage; the higher the percentage grows the easier it will be to raise money. Think of it logarithmically rather than linearly. Say at 10% you can raise $100, at 15% you can raise $1000 and at 20% $5000 and at 33% you can raise $100000. Well those numbers are completely factious it does highlight how the system works.

The real key in these results are how some other numbers look. To me a couple of numbers standout, first the strong negative perception of Education Minnesota (and unions in general.) Unions as a whole have been seeing their membership decline and fewer union members obviously means less sway, you make up for this by going "statewide" with you union message. I think that Education Minnesota is stumbling over its own feet for the past few months, and this polls indicates I am not alone it message is achieve the opposite result. If that continues it may be bad thing to be endorsed by Education Minnesota and Unions in general.

Now I want to be clear I am not saying unions as a whole are bad, rather their message is being lost and they will be marginalized by their own accord.