Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

Many people know my preference for the Independence Party over both the Democratic and Republican Party so when I am asked “Now that Tom Horner has been endorsed can he win?” I really had to think about the answer.

The first aspect of the question is who will be running in the other parties.
We are fairly certain that Tom Emmer will be the candidate for the Republican Party. On the democratic side it gets a little, okay a lot murky. Margaret Anderson Kelliher has been endorsed but she will face two well better known and arguable better financed candidates in the Primary.

If we focus on Tom Emmer for a second we know he is an “extreme” conservative that outside of the Republican Party is not well known. I have been told he make Tim Pawlenty look like a liberal when it comes to both his social and economic outlook. He is the type of candidate the TEA party love. Someone who claims they will cut their taxes by cutting Government Spending. Anyone with an Eighth Grade Public Education knows that is not possible, but it is that believe that is important for Emmer. The problem for Emmer is the ultra conservatives may give him a fairly large and willing volunteer cadre, it doesn’t really open up his check book for spending since the TEA party supporters tend to not have as deep of pockets as the business people who also form another side of the Republican Party.

If we move to look at the Democratic Ticket we see chaos theory in action. Margaret Anderson Kelliher is endorsed, in the DFL political circles she is well known, well liked and well regarded. The problem is the Political circle is such a small portion of the Electrorate as she will need to get support in the Primary. In the Primary she will face Mark Dayton, a name every Minnesotan knows and deep deep personal pockets and Matt Entenza, a name that not every Minnesotan knows with very deep deep pockets. Personally I think the race will come down to Dayton and Anderson Kelliher, but there is another wildcard. With so little riding on the Republican Ticket will Republicans vote Democrat in the Primaries too choose a candidate they think is easier to defeat in the General Election. In the end I think Dayton’s name recognition and personal wealth get him selected in the Primary.

With whatever the result of the Democratic Primaries the candidate will emerge extremely bruised and even worse having spent a substantial amount of their war chest to get that far. That plays into Emmer’s hand.

Let us assume that Tom Horner gets through the Primaries without having to spend a small fortune just to get selected as the Independence Party (he is not unopposed). What will have in the General Election.

20 to 25% of Minnesota will vote Democratic, 25% Republican, and 10% Independence Party just because that is what they those people always vote. That leaves 40% of the electorate up for grabs. This is not a race for the 51% but rather a race for the most votes. So the question is how will those 40% of Minnesotans vote.

The Democrats have several problems, starting with the backlash of the “failure” of Obama to dramatically change course of the Federal Government. No arguably the course of the Federal Government was set under President Eisenhower and everyone since just attempts to keep the ship on course, but that back lash of the perceived failure hurts the Party. The next issue is the Party is not united. If Margaret Anderson Kelliher wins the primary she will shift the party’s focus further to the left if Dayton or Entenza win the party will be more moderate. Either way 5% of the party vote (that 20 to 25%) is gone. With Dayton running look for a strong showing by the Green Party, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher a strong showing by the Independence Party. It behooves the Independence Party to see Margaret Anderson Kelliher win.

The real key is how is Emmer perceived by the general electorate. The more he is painted as a Right Wing fanatic the more the moderate Republican and centralist independent vote is needed. The democratic party, league of cities, and the Unions this year have unfettered spending to attack his campaign, he will be painted even further right (which is hard to imagine) than he really is.

So my assumption is Margaret Anderson Kelliher is the DFL Candidate and Tom Emmer is the Republican Candidate, if that is the case you are looking at fairly left of center candidate, a moderate republican, and conservative republican candidate running for office. It in many ways is a perfect storm, the total opposite of 1998 where three centralists split the vote and Jesse Ventura was elected.

If the Two parties attack one another early and often, watch for Tom Horner’s poll numbers to rise slightly. If that happens watch the two other candidates start attacking his positions, the moment that happens Tom Horner has a chance, the earlier that happens the better chance that Horner will have. If both Emmer and Margaret Anderson Kelliher are attacking each other and Horner by Mid-August that 40% may break in Horner’s favor. Pulling 5% off either party plus pulling 15% (37% of the undecided vote) Tom Horner will be the next Governor. While we know that Tom Horner can win we should know early how likely the chance will be that he does win.