Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

On May 26^th, Rasmussen Reports released its second Poll on Minnesota Governor and it reported a tossup, far closer race than reported by the MPR/Humphrey Poll of last week.

Emmer earns 38% support to 36% for Margaret Anderson Kelliher, speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Horner gets 11% of the vote, and 15% are undecided.

If his opponent in former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton, Emmer picks up 37% to the Democrat's 35%. Horner trails with 12%, with 16% more still undecided.

By a modest 37% to 34% margin, Emmer bests Entenza, with Horner again at 12%. Seventeen percent (17%) remain undecided, given this match-up.

As someone who has watched polls for years there appears to be something wrong with the reported numbers. It's one of the burning things in the back of your brain that just doesn't seem to catch, so I decided to look at the methodology, of course it is one of those "learning" or "active" polls that takes a users response to determine the next question. Upon completion of the survey the computer decides who you are planning on voting for. For example if you are "anti-abortion" and live in Minnesota you will vote Republican, regardless of what else you think. Of Course this works so well in 2006 Rasmussen polls had Mike Hatch Leading 47 to 45 with Hutchinson at 7 percent using the same methodology in all the polls leading up to the 2006 election.

For the Independence Party there is plenty of good news in the poll, Tom Horner is at 11 to 12 percent. Relatively at the same time in 2006 Hutchinson was at 7 to 8 percent. Considering that Rasmussen is using the same methodology that should be construed as a good sign.