Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

It's a common question, "Can the IP get another Governor Elected?" I am asked all the time, especially from my friends and family affiliations to other political parties. I have a usual tendency to nod, smile and give a look of derision. The simple answer is "yes, anyone who enters the race can win." Which usually leads to the follow up question, "How?"

And there you have asked the Sixty Four Thousand Dollar Question. How can a third party win in today's environment? To win you need a lot of things to go or at least lean your way, and not all of them have everything to do with your party and race.

You need the election to occur in an off year for federal elections. US Senators are elected for six year terms and are staggered so every 12 years this occurs. The last time it occurred was in 1998 and is occurring this year. The reason this is important is because the National Parties will spend millions on US Senator Elections and this spending enforces the two party system.

You need to have an election where the sitting governor is not running. This is a fairly common occurrence, but for the lay people it is really about the devil you know versus the one you don't. 1998 and 2002 this occurred and is occurring again this year.

There needs to be dissatisfaction with the sitting Government. This is something hard to measure, but if you look back to 1998 we had the Clinton/Lewinsky story as grabbing headlines all year. This created a strong dissatisfaction with the Government as a whole and polarized the two extremes of the major parties. In 2010 we have many issues polarizing the two extremes of the party. Health Care Reform, Wall Street Reform, disaster in the Gulf, two wars that the President inherited but cannot get out of, an economy in shambles, and the list goes on and on and on.

You notice that 1998 and 2010 have a lot of similarities, considering in 1998 Jesse Ventura Shocked the World in getting elected. The conditions are ripe for another win.

So the conditions are right, you ask "what else needs to happen?"

The third party needs to put up someone electable. I have spent some time talking to Tim Penny (2002) and Peter Hutchinson (2006) and a little time with Tom Horner (2010 Endorsed) and while it may seem callus Tom is a "more likable" guy. While Tim and Peter had many strong points, Tom is a better speaker off the cuff, has a stronger air of authority around him, and seems far more approachable than either Tim or Peter. In race with Tom Emmer and one of the DFL candidates Tom Horner is no worse than the second most likeable candidate. There is some question how he would fair against Mark Dayton, but he is well above the other two in terms of general likability.

Your candidate has to be well versed in the issues of the today and not carrying a large chunk of baggage with regard to those issues. That leads to the question, what are the issues, that another entry, but for now let's just say Tom Horner understands that Education, the Economy (Budget) and Government Services are the top three for everyone who isn't polarized by abortion, gay marriage, gun control, and separation of Church and State. Tom Emmer is polarized as far right leaning conservative, while Mark, Matt, and Margaret all have lots of baggage when dealing with the top three. Again if Tom Horner can capitalize on that he will be in great shape.

So that leaves two big issues, money and man power. The two major parties have access to both, however in this year there are things working against both parties. Without a Federal Election the amount of money spent by the national parties will be greatly diminished, almost non-existent in comparison to what both parties spent in 2006 and 2008. The Republican Party has chosen an extremely right conservative candidate in Tom Emmer (who people have stated makes Tim Pawlenty look like a moderate), while this energizes his conservative power base and gives him access to man power, money will be an issue in his party. Emmer will still have millions in his war chest, but compared to Tim Pawlenty's spending in 2006 think 1/3 to 1/2 less and remember everything costs 1/3 to ½ more this year; which is not good for Emmer. On the DFL side expect a bruising battle for the primary causing all three candidates to start emptying their war chest early and pre-bloodying the other candidates. In reality there are two out comes, as it stands today, Kelliher somehow manages to overcome Dayton, leaving her warchest broke and her reputation solidly bloodied, but with access to ample manpower or Dayton continues to win leaving him with a decent warchest but nowhere near the man power pool to work with; either solution is not good for DFL.

So now Horner needs to capitalize on those issues. He needs to spend enough money in advertizing and appearances to keep his name in everyone mind. This means lots of travel across the state, making speeches and hammer home the points.

Horner's campaign needs to build manpower, lots of manpower. While Horner will have the ability to raise money I think to be competitive the lack of a readily available manpower pool is what is going to be the greatest challenge to overcome. Jesse Ventura over came this in 1998 by appealing to the college aged students, something I think Tom Horner has to do. He needs to focus a goodly amount of time on the issues of higher education and he needs to mobilize those individuals.

Can Tom Horner Win, yes, everything is aligned to make a strong run, he has to capitalize on it, which is the question that remains to be answered.