Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

I created a good number of models to look at how the Governor's race would work out. My First Model (#001) had a low voter turnout and a moderate lean away from center. It was a only a test on how you model Election results based up poll data and since it was a model not really supported by the polls I ignored it.

Model 001 – Low Turn Out (2,037,000), Dayton 43%, Horner 14%, Emmer 41%, however my comments:

Modeling a polarized vote is difficult because rather than looking a linear pattern you must use a weighted bell curve adjusting the weight of the votes based upon their location in the individuals candidates spectrum as well as along the overall spectrum.

Because of rounding this would be the closest situation for Emmer to win the election. When I worked on the weighted bell curve later I used 13.00527 as the percentage for Horner and 40.01761 and 2 percent voting for other parties.

I kept looking back at this model and saying something about it was correct.

Had I applied my later weighted bell curve to model, Dayton wins by 12,000 votes. Dayton's current lead is around 10,000 votes depending on which source you read, with DFL leaning precincts in Aitkin, Cass, Kandiyohi, and St. Louis Counties to report.

I never thought in a million years we would have turnout below 2.1 million voters, officially the count stands at 2.06 million voters. My second lowest model has 2.16 million voters and most of my models had 2.24 to 2.47 million votes. Guess that is why I do this as a hobby.