Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

While it pains me to say it I feel that Michele Bachmann will win this fall’s election for Congress in the 6th Congressional District. The real question is where does she go from here?

In 2012 will she be the Republican Candidate for US Senator against incumbent Amy Klobuchar? Will she be VIP candidate on someone’s ticket? Will she run for US Congress again?

The questions may be answered when the State of Minnesota's Congressional Districts are redrawn in 2011. If we assume that Minnesota keeps all eight seats in Congress (which seems pretty safe at the moment) than we know portions of the 6th Congressional District will be detached and joined with other districts as Washington County has made vast growth in populations over the past decade. While the Republicans would like to see a combined district for Minneapolis and St. Paul that will never (or should never) stand judicial overview. So the assumption is that a couple of State Legislative districts will shift from the 6th to the 4th. The real concern is whether or not those districts include Lake Elmo as well as Woodbury and heaven forbid Stillwater. While I doubt Stillwater will be lost unless there is a radical shift in district lines, but it isn’t out of the question. If Bachmann ends up a resident of the 4th CD, she will not run for Congress.

Congresswoman Bachmann is amassing a huge warchest, some estimates indicate she may be earning more than $37K a day in donations. It obvious she is not, heck she couldn’t even if she wanted to, spend that much on a CD election. My guess is she is preparing for a shot at US Senator. She will run basically unopposed in the Primary and with enough money could she defeat Senator Klobucher?
The problem with this is Klobucher has the highest approval rating of any US Senator and much like another former CD 6th Congressmen, it will be tough to win a State Wide election with her positions.

There is the possibility is Congresswoman Bachmann is looking to be the VP on someone’s ticket for US President, Dan Quayle to a conservative leaning George Bush. The question who’s ticket would this benefit? Looking at the first round of potential candidates he answer is Mitt Romney.

The final two possibilities I think are very low on the potential meter, not run for anything or go for the whole enchilada as US President.

With a geographically smaller 6th district and even the potential to be in the 4th district I don’t think she will run that campaign. The smaller 6th district will move from fairly conservative to a more moderate position with St. Cloud becoming much more a strong locale in the district. While a move to the 4th district basically eliminates any chance of victory. In either case a loss would end her political career.

IF Bachmann was challenging Franken for the US Senate seat I think it would be fairly easy to call where she would go, but rather she would be challenging the highly liked Klobuchar. However to put a monkey in the works many people believe that Tim Pawlenty is eyeing Franken’s seat and whether Bachmann likes it or not she would have a hard time winning that nomination. So it Klobuchar in two years or nothing.

So I would not be surprised to see Michele Bachmann angle for a VP on someone else’s ticket and like I said politically it makes sense for Mitt Romney to lock up the “Tea Party” caucus.