Thoughts about the MN Independence Party

A Blog posting by Jason Hoppin in the Pioneer Press/

During a chat over the weekend, Washington Post political reporter Chris Cillizza pegs Chip Cravaack as a one-term House member, likely to lose his seat in 2012.

Obviously it's early -- Cravaack hasn't even taken the oath and is literally going to freshman orientation today -- but Cillizza says voters in the the 8th Congressional District are likely to want to return a Democrat to the seat next election.

We're not so sure. The Cook Political Report rates the district as +3 Democrat, which isn't overwhelmingly partisan. And Iron Range Democrats are more conservative than their urban counterparts.

Furthermore, redistricting will likely have an effect on the district. With Michele Bachmann's 6th District seeing big population gains over the last decade, it's likely the 8th District would take on some of the 6th's voters, spilling more red into a blue district.

The first step in this discussion is to look at the US Census population estimates for the Counties in the 8 US CD, notable St. Louis, Chisago, Carlton, Benton, ... and come up with the current estimates. 616,000 thousand people according to the 2009 estimates or just under 12% of Minnesota Total Population.
Eight US CDs puts the percentage at 12.5%. Wow there will be a big shift there.
Of course that assumes that Minnesota does indeed have eight seats when it is announced later in the year and the population estimates are somewhat correct.
I doubt you'll see a big shift in the 8 US CD boundries.
Now the problem is the 4 US CD, which is St. Paul, Maplewood, Oakdale and a few other little suburbs on the east side of St. Paul. Population estimates there are only 570,000 range, you would need Lake Elmo, Stillwater, Grant and the other exurbs between Stillwater and I94. Hum, doesn't that include Michele Bachmann's residence?

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=37e41c98-7f52-4350-82b9-35876368de8b

Survey USA has released a new survey covering the Minnesota 6^th Congressional District, in which Republican Michelle Bachmann is the incumbent and is running against Tarryl Clark (D), Bob Anderson (IP) and Aubrey Immelman (I).

The first thing which caught my eye in the results is that only 5% are listed as undecided. I actually noticed this before looking at the other numbers. This is an awfully low mark for this early in the season and while we are talking the 6^th CD so it is possible that people have made up their mind whether or not they are voting for Bachmann it seems much too low.

The next thing that caught my eye was Bachmann's 48% and if the undecided seemed off, to me it clearly seems that Bachmann's numbers are also seem off. There are a couple of reasons for this, first the Democratic Party believes that Bachmann is vulnerable and a number like 48% doesn't equate to that possibility. Second, living in the 6^th CD, albeit in a fairly "liberal" section if such a place exists, much of the discussion is on the millions both major candidates have amassed and when we start seeing the ads in full force.

When I look at Party Affiliation 36% Republican, 28% Democrat, and 31% Independent seems in line so it doesn't appear that the sample is tilted one way or the other.

Then of course I see how the results appear to be skewed in Bachmann's favor, 57% of the respondents own at least one fire arm. The largest number I have seen is around 42% for the state as Gun Owners tend to be more conservative that is a benefit for Bachmann. So while the rural 6^th CD might have a slightly higher percentage of Gun Owners than the state average I doubt it is 15% higher.

So what do we do with these numbers?

There is little question that Bachmann is in the lead at the moment, the size of her lead in the election is probably smaller than the stated 9 percentage points. So at this point it something to watch.

What to Watch in upcoming polls?

The first thing to watch is the percentage of voters in the +/-50 age band. Currently the number of voters is 53% below age 50, the change in that number will be interesting, in the 6^th CD I believe the more +50 voters there are as a percentage the better off it will be for Bachmann. In the latest numbers by the US Census bureau on age ranges only 15% of the population or 32% of the eligible voters. As these voters (especially in the more rural settings) a) tend to vote more often and b) tend to be more conservative in said situations. It will be interesting to watch.

The next thing to watch is percent undecided. I would have expected that number to be about 10% this early, but this is the 6^th CD, if that number changes upward it will diminish the "trustworthyness" of this poll.

And finally percent Gun Owners. I thought this number was too high, a number closer to 47% would be more realistic for this CD.

What About Bob?

Bob is in a unique situation, I would expect Bob to draw around 10 to 12% in the general election, that number is going to be driven up or down by the actions of the Two Major Parties. If one or the other of the Two major Candidates has a major issue that number will increase, and if both parties go extremely negative (beyond the usual name calling) it could really drive his number up. It will really depend on how close to the election it happens.