Looking ahead to 2012

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

On a State Level the Republicans control the majority in the House and Senate how will their campaign look next year when running to retain control.

Expect to see a lot of hot topics which score points with the conservative base pushed, these include Abortion, Gay Marriage, Gun Rights, and Taxes. The question that will need to be answered is how are the people in the Middle with Right leaning tendencies going to take those issues being forced upon them.

In several latest polls (including the one by the Star Tribune) indicate as much as 70% of Minnesotans support a women's right to choose. While this has been a hot button issue with the state politics for years many don't think it is an important issue, especially with the state deficits. If the Republicans push too hard on this issue the risk large black lash from the middle.

Gay Marriage is another issue that the Social Conservatives want to push, well more specifically they want to push a Amendment to the State Constitution in an effort to further block Gay marriage in the State. Worried about "activist judges". It is interesting that Minnesota is considered to have an extremely Liberal Judicial base in both State and Federal courts, yet so far no challenge to the law has gotten any legal traction here. This push can only be made to get more support, I mean dollars, from the Conservative base. The big problem for the Republicans is there plan may back fire on them. This is an issue that could come to dominate the elections come next Summer and since Minnesota Leans Left on the Social Issues could this issue get more Democrats to the Voting Booth than Republicans?

Gun Rights just like Gay Marriage is another Conservative issue that could back fire for the Republicans if pushed too hard. I expect to see this issue early in the election cycle than basically forgotten until three weeks before the election in November.

The No New Taxes issue which always hits home with people, including the 90% of Minnesotans who it doesn't apply to in the first place is going to be the top issue. However for the Republicans it is putting them in a very hard place to stay. Most Minnesotans understand that for Government to work it needs Money, that money is collected in Fees or Taxes (spelled Fees if you read Tim Pawlenty's Lips). If you play less in one form you need to pay more in another, for most Minnesotans the Statewide issues will result in higher local taxes, um property taxes. Minnesotans are going to have gotten thier 2013 Tax stuff by the time the elections happen and this is not going to be pretty for the Republicans. This is why they are pushing bills and the like to hold down Property Taxes. The funny part is for Most Minnesotans who would be effected by tax increases aren't as high effected by the property tax increase and Vice Versa.
If the left can hit that fact home this is a losing effort by Republicans, if Not expect 90 mailings a day highlighting the "Tax and Spend" Democrats.