It's Official - Recount to start

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The State Canvassing Board has confirmed the vote totals and the recount officially starts on Monday.

No word yet on whether the Board denied Emmer's request.

Emmer will ask the State Canvasing Board to do...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

Exactly what the Minnesota Supreme Court refused to do.

FROM MPR
Now, attorneys for Republican Tom Emmer are expected to ask the five member State Canvassing Board to do what the Supreme Court didn't -- require local
elections officials to match up the number of ballots cast with the number of voters who signed in on Election Day.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Canvasing Board will decline Mr. Emmer's request as well, call it hunch.

It appears as if the GOP is on a delaying tactic at this moment.

MN Supreme Court refuses to intevene

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

In a very quick decision the Minnesota Supreme Court refused to intervene on Tom Emmer and the GOP behalf on the grounds of "over votes". A full decision will be released at a later date.

From MPR

The Minnesota Supreme Court ruled late this afternoon that it would not intervene the likely recount of the votes in the state's still-undecided governor's race. Republican Tom Emmer had asked the court to force county elections officials to reconcile the number of ballots cast on November second with the signatures of people as they signed in to vote. The court heard arguments on the issue earlier this afternoon and issued its decision denying Emmer's petition just a few minutes ago.

Hennepin County Response to Emmer's Request

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

gov race

What comes first...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

One of the oldest questions asked by ancient philosophers is the casualty dilemma, “what comes first the chicken or the egg?” Metaphorically the ancient philosophers were discussing life with that question but as we look towards the future of the Independence Party of Minnesota we have a similar problem. What comes first the Money or the Structure?

The infrastructure of the Party is dependent on Money but without the infrastructure can the IP raise the money? It is another casualty dilemma that will be plaguing the Party Leadership as the year progress and the Party begins to prepare for the 2012 election cycle.

The IP cannot hope for success without building the party infrastructure. The infrastructure the party needs is branding itself as being different than both parties, keeping people active in the party, the ability to organize volunteers, and the ability to raise money.

As William Labovitch in his letter to the Editor of the Star Tribune writes “It's time the Independence Party stops running candidates and runs on the only message it ever had: None of the above.” The problem of course is that is nowhere near the truth. Anyone who watched the Tom Horner’s campaign saw the message “No Left, No Right, but Forward” to borrow Peter Hutchinson’s campaign slogan. Horner proposed many vastly different solutions than either of the other candidates and spent hours explaining the difference but if the common Joe only knows or hears “None of the above” than there is a branding issue that needs to be addressed.

As Tom Horner suggests in his editorial to the Star Tribune:

the political center needs to be branded. Accurately or not, Minnesotans define the political left as the defenders of social justice, where the interests of Everyday Joe or Jane take priority over Wall Street. If this requires bigger government, so be it. On the political right, Minnesotans see a party perceived to be for business and smaller government. The right is seen as the home of "traditional values."
As for the political center, for too many Minnesotans there is no definition. It's a political mash-up, a bit of this and a bit of that without any clarity and, worse, without any core principles. There needs to be a clear and compelling answer to the question, "What does it mean to be a political centrist?"
Of course as a former Moderate Republican, I instinctly know what the center of the political spectrum, but how do I explain and “sell” that knowledge to another potential voter. Maybe the new motto should be “the best of both worlds; working to improve the life of the common Joe by partnering with the Business.”
“Best of Both Worlds” needs to be a starting point a simple rallying point for the political center and it needs to be expressed in a platform and plank. If the platform of the Party continues to be centered on the Party and not political spectrum than the slogan is lost.
The current first item of the core values of the IP reads “A democratic process with integrity and broad citizen participation” I would suggest it should be rewritten “Empowering and Engaging citizens to be involved in the democratic process with integrity and tolerant ideals.” Well that is my first attempt at that sentence, but while they mean virtually the same thing the second sentence is more appealing and attractive to the casual voter.
This concept needs to be heard by more than those in just the Party and sooner than the next election, and that’s what the Party Leadership needs to do, speak out. MPR, morning news shows, letters to the editors, speaking engagements,

The next issue is one that I have complained about for years, the inability to keep people involved with the party after the election. I’ll be honest I am no different than your average Joe, none election season and I hardly write or post anything, however once the election season starts. For the party to grow and bloom that needs to change. Where are people like John Binkowski, Jim Haviland, Peter Hutchinson, Tim Penny. A few of us know that some of these people are still involved but the IP needs to better engage these former candidates and get them involved in preparing, recruiting, and fund raising for the party and it next generation of candidates.
But it goes beyond the former candidates (and their staffs) but to the general volunteers and those that provided financial support for the process. These people are just as important to the party, especially moving forward. Horner has called these people the Grassroots of the party. It could be something as small as a $50 donation to the party or attending a political rally or fundraiser. All of this is important as the party moves forward.
One of the problems with the IP and many geographically dispersed groups’ is that the call for action is both local and regional in nature and that requests sent to everyone become toned out because there are so many. I can’t tell you how often over the past year I saw requests for “volunteers” in places well beyond my general vicinity. In the end all these requests became no better than spam. The IP needs a better system of ‘spearing’ or getting the people closest to the event notified and leaving those further away off the list. Even if it means losing one or two people from across the state if the requests seem more local more people should want to involved. You live in SW Minnesota than you should hear about the events in the South West Minnesota, not the NE or the NW or… Stay Local.
This also needs to include expanding the “get togethers” and the what not. The next time that the IP gets together shouldn’t be the caucus in spring. We need to start now to empower more people.

Finally the party needs a better fundraising apparatus. It needs to allow people to contribute on different scales and means than the current system. The average donation is like $45 a year per individual and if the IP wants to move forward than it needs to get that amount from the core group and next orbit of people. Simple math if 100,000 people donate $45 a year than the IP has raised $4.5 million dollars, considering that amount is nothing compared to what the big two parties raise it is more than enough to be competitive in 2012.

Supreme Court Order

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

ORA102022-1118

Horner in the Star Tribune

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Read the full Editorial here

And while I can't speak for all candidates, I know my campaign -- and those of Jesse Ventura, Tim Penny and Peter Hutchinson before me -- wasn't ego-driven. I and the other IP gubernatorial candidates represent a large swath of Minnesota voters who are ignored by the DFL and GOP. There is much evidence to suggest that we speak for much broader audiences than our vote totals suggest
.

GOP sues before Recount even starts

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Read the MPR report here



Before the details are released it appears teh GOP is suing to get "excess" ballots removed from precincts where more ballots were cast then people registered.

More Details to follow

Star Tribune letters to the Editor

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Read the Letters here.

Matt Lewis, Press Secretary for the IP Candadate Tom Horner Writes:

Horner didn't take votes; he earned them
The Independence Party does not "take" votes: It earns them ("Tom Horner wins -- well kind of, sort of," Nov. 14).

More than a quarter-million Minnesotans voted for Horner for governor. It is a smaller base than the other two major parties. But multiple elections prove it significant.


There is also a letter from William Labovitch who simple states:
The governor's race outcome is still pending, and yet everybody knows Horner did
not win.

It's time the Independence Party stops running candidates and runs on the only message it ever had: None of the above.

Hutchinson to speak in Willmar

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

The 2006 Inpendence Candidate for Gorvernor and current President of the Bush Foundation Peter Hutchinson will be speaking in Willmar on December 2nd.

WILLMAR — Peter Hutchinson, president of the Bush Foundation, will speak in
Willmar on Dec. 2.

Hutchinson is also a former state finance commissioner and was the 2006 Independence Party candidate for governor.

He will speak on “Government Service Redesign and Spending Reform” from noon to 1:30 p.m. at the Willmar Conference Center, hosted by the Willmar Lakes Area Chamber of Commerce.

Cost is $10, including lunch. To make reservations, call 320-235-0300 or e-mail chamber@willmar areachamber.com.

Hutchinson will talk about the problems facing Minnesota and outline the kind of leadership it will take to solve them.

Hutchinson has been president of the St. Paul-based Bush Foundation since December 2007. The foundation was established in 1953 by 3M executive Archibald Granville Bush and his wife Edyth. Its aim is to help improve the lives of the people of Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota and in the 23 sovereign tribal nations in those states. In 2009, the Foundation made grants of approximately $35 million.

Before moving to the foundation, Hutchinson was co-founder of the Public Strategies Group, a St. Paul company that redesigns and transforms governments throughout the world. He also served as the vice president for external affairs for the Dayton Hudson Corp. and chairman of the Dayton Hudson Foundation. He was superintendent of the Minneapolis Public Schools and was a deputy mayor in Minneapolis. Hutchinson is coauthor with David Osborne of “The Price of Government: Getting the Results We Need in an Age of Permanent Fiscal Crisis.”

Recount Times and Locations Announced

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Governor 1

A story that deserves ridicule

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

A Blog posting by Jason Hoppin in the Pioneer Press/

During a chat over the weekend, Washington Post political reporter Chris Cillizza pegs Chip Cravaack as a one-term House member, likely to lose his seat in 2012.

Obviously it's early -- Cravaack hasn't even taken the oath and is literally going to freshman orientation today -- but Cillizza says voters in the the 8th Congressional District are likely to want to return a Democrat to the seat next election.


We're not so sure. The Cook Political Report rates the district as +3 Democrat, which isn't overwhelmingly partisan. And Iron Range Democrats are more conservative than their urban counterparts.

Furthermore, redistricting will likely have an effect on the district. With Michele Bachmann's 6th District seeing big population gains over the last decade, it's likely the 8th District would take on some of the 6th's voters, spilling more red into a blue district.


The first step in this discussion is to look at the US Census population estimates for the Counties in the 8 US CD, notable St. Louis, Chisago, Carlton, Benton, ... and come up with the current estimates. 616,000 thousand people according to the 2009 estimates or just under 12% of Minnesota Total Population.
Eight US CDs puts the percentage at 12.5%. Wow there will be a big shift there.
Of course that assumes that Minnesota does indeed have eight seats when it is announced later in the year and the population estimates are somewhat correct.
I doubt you'll see a big shift in the 8 US CD boundries.
Now the problem is the 4 US CD, which is St. Paul, Maplewood, Oakdale and a few other little suburbs on the east side of St. Paul. Population estimates there are only 570,000 range, you would need Lake Elmo, Stillwater, Grant and the other exurbs between Stillwater and I94. Hum, doesn't that include Michele Bachmann's residence?

Article by Horner for MPR

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

You can read the full article here.

I will be adding some comments in a little later after I have had time to digest the entire thing.

Survey USA - Post Election

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

KSTP/Survey USA did another survey and the crosstab results are here

If Tom Horner was in the election who would you have voted for:
Emmer - 29
Dayton - 37
Other Candidate - 22
Not Voted - 11
Unsure - 1

While the Republicans still are "screaming" about the vote leaning, because Horner Lost so much support in the last week I figured the results of any survey would look like this. It's back to the core IP voters, which lean Democrate.

MPR - Humphrey Poll - Audit

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

From the MPR and U of MN

Minnesota Public Radio and the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute say they'll be taking a close look at how they conducted polls before the election.

They said in a statement today the process will include an internal review by the Humphrey Institute, and an independent audit by Frank Newport, the editor and chief of Gallup.

The MPR-Humphrey Institute polls were accused of consistently overstating support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton.

The final pre-election poll gave Dayton a 12-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer. But Dayton's lead in the voting was under half of 1 percentage point, pending a recount.

MPR and the Humphrey Institute say they'll be looking at whether there's a problem with their methodology or if other factors explain the difference.

MPR and the Humphrey Institute partnered this year to conduct four polls leading up to Election Day. The final poll, based on interviewing begun nearly two weeks before Election Day, showed results significantly different from the final election tally. This issue will be examined along with the raw data from other polls to determine whether there is a methodological reason for the difference, or whether external events account for the difference.

"We are committed to a transparent review of our polling methodology because we value the importance of continuous improvement in our efforts," said Professor Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Government. "If a shortcoming is identified, we will fix it. If not, we will have third-party verification that our methods are sound."

"The review of polling methodology is a necessary step in continuing to provide Minnesotans with the unbiased information they need to make informed decisions," said Chris Worthington, MPR's managing director of News.

Dean Brian Atwood of the Humphrey Institute added, "I welcome the opportunity to conduct this self analysis and peer review, a regular process for any academic institution. Professor Jacobs is an internationally recognized expert in this field. He is a professional who looks critically at his own work, as well as at polls conducted by others. We are committed to maintaining a very high standard."

Should the IP continue as a Party

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Well I am going to start with my opinion that the IP of Minnesota continue as a political party. There has already been much discussion about whether or not a 527 Organization would be a better fit for the existing IP. A 527 is a tax exempt organization created primarily to influence nominations, elections, or defeat of political candidates for office.

Moving to a 527 would free the IP from recruiting, fund raising, and doing many things that Political Parties do while giving them a free hand at looking at which candidates would be the best or most moderate view.

The first and most important problem/issue I see with this “whom is the party going to support?” As the Republicans party continues to move to the right and the DFL/Democratic party continues it weeblo wobbling about how far left the party can go, where will the moderate or middle of the road candidates come from.

I had a Political Science teacher use the example of teeter-totter to explain American Politics, on the Right you have the Republicans and on the left the Democrats and everyone else needs to decide which side of the fulcrum they need to sit on. That example probably worked fairly well in the 70’s and 80’s as a majority of the population considered themselves either Democrats or Republicans and parties boasted numbers in the 40% range. As parties increased in size the more left and right leaning aspects of the parties learned that they could gain much in being active early. Today those numbers that indicate the size of the parties has decreased to closer to 25% and even a smaller portion of the party is active.

Tom Horner was asked why he didn’t run as a moderate Republican in the Primary, but the answer is simple. As a man who was Republican for 25 years the party had moved and changed so much he was no longer a Republican in the current sense of the word. "They own the brand and as such the right to define what a Republican is." To paraphrase Tom Horner.

As the Democratic and Republican Party has moved over the years they have of coursed assimilated other parties that were to the left and right of their positions. In both cases it can be argued that what they assimilated became the dominant aspect of the party.

This of course leaves a very large hole in the middle of the political spectrum. If there is no Independence Party than there will be no candidates with anything that resembles a viable chance of succeeding as such no one to endorse or support.

That doesn’t mean however that a 527 is a bad idea, and I would hope that at least one such group is created to help work the middle of politics rather than the fringes that we in today’s political landscape.

Fair Warning

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

As I write, rant, blog, white board, brainstorm, and even publish my thoughts on the future of the Independence Party in Minnesota I will be the first person to tell you that my thoughts are not complete, are not finalized, and will be changing from today going forward as start putting them down on paper (in the blog). So what I say today could change by tomorrow, or next week, or three weeks from now, or…
I know that there are a small number of readers to this blog and it is my hope these thoughts help you formulate your own ideas, help you express your ideas, and hopefully provide a forum for others with similar inklings to maybe help me define my thoughts.

Before you can say this is what the Independence Party of Minnesota must do, you have to see if it has been tried before and whether or not it was successful. I forget who said this originally, but as a History Major I whole heartedly concur. When you look to the future you must understand the past for failure to do so creates a mandate that past mistakes will with all certainty be repeated.

After the humbling defeat in the 2010 Governor’s election much has been made on the future of the IP, should it continue as a party, should it become an 527 Political Entity, should it not endorse a candidate for 2012 Senator’s race, should it… The list of questions goes on and on and on. Makes one wonder if the DFL in Minnesota and Democrats nationally are asking the similar questions after the beating there party took at the polls.

Dayton meets with Past Finance Commissioners

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Pioneer Press Story


The former budgeteers were John Gunyou (under Republican Gov. Arne Carlson), Peggy Ingison (under GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty), Jay Kiedrowki (under DFL Gov. Rudy Perpich) and Pam Wheelock (under IP Gov. Jesse Ventura).


It's interesting to see the list and thoughts that multiple perspectives could be present.

Veteran's Day

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

After watching the neighborhood children playing and pretending to be heroes of “Star Wars”, “Halo”, “Call to Duty” or even “Black Ops” I think about that cold and dreary day in the Northwest corner of France at precisely 11AM on Nov 11, 1918 the War to end all Wars came to an end. It was well before my time but the writing of the Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, and Airmen confirmed that they dreamed of day where children would not understand the concept of war, the same dream shared among servicemen throughout the world today. There dream like mine is not to be, not yet.

Millions have answered the call to service since that bloody morning and I have had the distinct honor to have served with some of the finest men and women you will ever have met. To my brothers and sisters I salute you. To friends and family who’s loved ones have never come home I wish I had words to explain their sacrifice, the ability to comfort you, the grace to provide the needed healing but my words would only be worthless and weak. I am reminded on this great day of a letter written nearly 150 years ago on November 26, 1864.

Mrs. Bixby, Boston, Massachusetts:
DEAR MADAM: I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant-General of Massachusetts that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle. I feel how weak and fruitless must be any words of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering to you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save. I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom.
Yours very sincerely and respectfully,
Abraham Lincoln

On this day, a day we celebrate those that answered a higher calling, a day we acknowledge individuals who have place the needs of the many above the needs of the few or the one, a day we seek to understand why or how an individual is willing to put themselves upon the altar of freedom without as much as moment’s notice, the 11 day of the 11 month is a day we call Veteran’s Day. For those of us who served it is a day that provides Free Food, Free Tickets to a sporting event, free parking and most importantly a warm handshake and hearty thank you. But I will let you in on a little secret,to those us that served, everyday is Veteran’s Day a day we remember or friends, comrades, brother and sisters in arms. We remember the good times and the bad, the happiness and the sorrow, the reasons we volunteered and the reasons we would Never Again Volunteer Yourself.

To those that look upon an empty chair, an empty bed, a folded flag or a set of tin dog tags everyday is Memorial Day and we cannot begin to express enough gratitude for your sacrifice.

Star Tribune Editorial on IRV

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Link

Last week's election strengthened the argument for using ranked-choice voting in Minnesota elections -- even as GOP wins in the Legislature weakened the likelihood that Minnesotans will soon be able to vote for state offices by ranking candidates in order of preference.

That's the irony that confronts advocates of a switch to a ballot that allows ranked-choice voting rather than forcing voters to choose only one candidate in a multicandidate field.

For the fourth time in a row, Minnesota has elected a governor who did not win a majority of the votes cast. That will be true regardless of whether DFLer Mark Dayton retains his current unofficial lead of about 8,700 votes or Republican Tom Emmer overtakes him in a recount that now appears unavoidable. The 12 percent share of the vote captured by the Independence Party's Tom Horner assures a less-than-majority outcome for the eventual winner of this close election.

MNIP Blog Going Forward

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

I have been blogging about the Independence Party and Middle of the Road Politics in Minnesota for going on eight years. Having moved to my current URL four years ago, I like the IP of MN have spent some time recently thinking about the future of the blog and what I should be doing. I have looked at my posting habits and number of readers. It is surprising to see some of the statistics on my “viewer” ship when I looked at the analytics, surprised to see 54 regular readers and typically 100 or so irregular readers.

One of the clear problems when blogging about IP is the fact during elections I have lots to write about, and this year’s governor’s race is no exception. Of the 100 or so posts I made on the 2010 Governor’s race I had/have another 200 that were ideas or comments that never made it past the draft stage. But for the next year plus I may only have six or seven topics that relate directly to the focus of the Blog, I have been afraid the blog would become the rantings of a disenfranchised moderate republican if I wrote about everything that comes to mind.

The next problem, which is very similar to the first problem, a Party without elected officials at a State Legislative or State Executive really doesn’t give you a lot of people to talk to generate new content. Without new content your readers tend to disappear almost as fast as those non-existent postings appear (dang I hope that makes sense.)

My final problem is technological based, shocking as it may seem since I work in the IT field for my day job, I have lots of problems with PCs and my laptop. Heck somehow I managed to block MS Word from publishing today. Considering I managed to delete everything on the 2008 Senate Election off the blog. That is something I have to do a much better job at, including maybe even my own hosted service.

After much thinking and discussion with people I am going to post more, not necessarily about people but about topics. I currently have 137 draft topics that include everything from getting first time voters involved to senior citizens voting and my goal will be to get one of those topics finished a week, at least. In addition I am going to provide a few disenfranchised moderate republican comments. I mean it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that some of the “Tea Party” positions are at best baseless, let alone fabrications. I think it James Carville who once said, “Sometimes when you tell a lie often enough it becomes truth.”

I am also going to try and speak with people who have been involved with the Independence Party or general politics over the coming year. Tim Penny, Peter Tharaldson, Tom Horner, Jack Uldrich, Jim Moore, Steven Wilson, Bob Anderson, Amy Moore, and the list goes on and on.

In addition I am going to look closely at party building, how can a grassroots party like the IP become better equipped for fundraising and appearances to move the party forward. In other words how does the party improve it grassroots mechanism and its fundraising capacity.

I could write more on a variety of topics, heck I have added three draft ideas to my list since starting this letter.

You have ideas or thoughts; drop me an email at mnip-blog@hotmail.com, heck I would love to hear what topics people think are important.

V/r Jeff

Tom Horner appears on MPR

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Link

For those of you who don't regularly listen to MPR this is a great interview with Tom Horner with really a honest conversation rather than the bigger spin you normally get with candidates. (That doesn't mean there isn't spin but rather a candid discussion).

First Obama volley post Elections

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Multiple News sources are reportingthat the Obama administration is seeking return on Stimulus money "earmarked" for high speed rail project; some of the money could already have been spent.

In some post-election hardball between the Obama administration and
newly-elected Republicans, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is threatening to
take back stimulus funds from states if they do not follow through on proposed
rail projects.


As a supporter of High Speed rail, I chuckled, because if the incoming Republican Governors in Wi and Ohio didn't see this coming.

Add to it that the Obama administration is asking New Jersey for the $300 million it already spent on the ARC Tunnel Project, it looking like this is going to be rough going for the incoming class.

Tom Horner's Posting on Facebook

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Posted on the Tom Horner Facebook Page

Libby and I are very grateful for all the good wishes that have been sent our way. We also have been reaffirmed in our belief that there is a strong center to Minnesota public policy and politics. Once we finish wrapping things up on the 2010 campaign, we will work with those interested to craft the next steps. Stay tuned -- and keep sharing your thoughts here.


There already has been some suggestion that Tom will stay involved with the IP and even some speculation that he might be the first Executive Director, something long overdue with the party.

The long Gone Center

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

The Pioneer Press and Dispatch posted a story by Steven Thomma about the Conservative and Moderate Democrats being ousted in the Mid-Term Elections.

In Minnesota Politics we saw the same thing; here in Woodbury ousted Moderate Democrats Marsha Swails and Kathy Saltzman typify what was the Republican Game Plan in the elections.

Without these Moderates or Conservative Democrats I have wondered how the Republicans can even imagine working across the aisle, and without the ability to work across the aisle, will this just be a two year blip? Where the Conservative Republicans just elected get ousted in Two Years because they will now be the source of Grid-Lock. If Dayton and Obama look at what Clinton did during his administration and take on his triangulation method. It will be either a very short or long two years for the Republicans.

Throwing Away Votes - Another Bloggers View

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

From the Blog "Old and in the Way" a discussion about throwing away your votes.

Except Tom Emmer. Tom Emmer, in contrast, is a strong and very conservative candidate. Make that very conservative and given the united front that Republicans have in this state, Tom emerged from the party convention with an endorsement and unopposed by any real competition. Tom energized the base, pledged allegiance to the Tea Party and the Bachmann conservatives and really was a guy we Liberals are terrified off. When his endorsement was final, my reaction was “he’s unelectable, he’s an ideologue”. I will admit that Tom Emmer is a much more honest choice than Dayton, he leaves little doubt as to his agenda and his positions, it’s just his positions are way out on the extreme, both on social issues and finances.

It is a pretty good piece.

Emmer's Steep hill

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

From Minnesota Public Radio

Republican Tom Emmer will have a hard time finding enough votes to overcome Democrat Mark Dayton's lead in the governor's race, recount attorneys and election law experts said Thursday.

Emmer trails Dayton by 8,774 votes, but there would have to be widespread, systematic errors for Emmer to overcome the deficit either during the certification process or a recount, said Guy Charles, a law professor at Duke University.

A well intended article

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Bill Salsbury and Mary Jo Webster of the St. Paul Pioneer Press write about Tom Horner's presence leading to Mark Dayton's presumed victory.


In general, Jacobs said, Emmer got fewer votes than Pawlenty did in 2006 because Horner fared better than his IP predecessor, Peter Hutchinson.
Unfortantely this argument loses all validity once you start looking at How Tim Penny, the IP Candidate in 2002, did in comparison to Tom Horner in 2010.

Take Sterns County for example in 2002/2006/2010:
Republican 50/55/50
IP 15/5/12
Democrat 30/37/36

In 2002 if the argument presented were correct than Roger Moe would have won the election because Tim Penny recieved a higher percentage of votes than Tom Horner.

GOP prepares for the Recount

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

MN Public Radio

Before the GOP gets to far ahead of itself it going to need to wait for the Certified total. Considering those totals and the preliminary totals change by roughly 2 to 3 thousand on average, a net gain of 1450 by Dayton will put the total outside of the .5 % range and require teh GOP to pay for the Recount.

At least we have something to talk about.

What an incredible Article

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Not to be missed in the MinnPost


While it has consistently retained its “major party status” on the strength of gaining at least 5 percent of voters in a statewide race — and while IP
candidate Jesse Ventura won the governorship in 1998 with 38 percent of the vote
— can the IP burst out of its tiny silo?


A very important question that been asked and reasked over the years.

However most article stop at that point, Jay Weiner instead takes us into the issues that are facing the IP.

But the party apparatus and treasury has barely grown, with Uldrich allowing that there are today about 5,000 Minnesotans who consider themselves IPers, with about 500 statewide activists.


Jay even focused on the Legislative Races
While the IP ran an extensive slate of candidates, even those that Uldrich and other party faithful thought might do well in legislative races, didn’t. The IP ran seven state Senate candidates and 10 House candidates. Of those 27 challengers, two scored higher percentages in their races than Horner did in his. The rest were in single digits.

“It needs to be more focused," Carlson said of the IP.


All in all an extremely well and though provoking article.

What Votes are Left

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Officially from the Secretary of State's Office there are total votes in precincts of 27,000 registered voters, with an estimated 59% turnout that leaves approximately 16,000 votes yet to be counted. Emmer needs to win 87% of those votes to be the winner, Dayton needs 65% of those votes to put the election out of the "recount" category. Considering there are a couple of Big Dayton Precincts left to report it is possible but I think we are headed to a recount.

Your First Instincts

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

I created a good number of models to look at how the Governor's race would work out. My First Model (#001) had a low voter turnout and a moderate lean away from center. It was a only a test on how you model Election results based up poll data and since it was a model not really supported by the polls I ignored it.

Model 001 – Low Turn Out (2,037,000), Dayton 43%, Horner 14%, Emmer 41%, however my comments:

Modeling a polarized vote is difficult because rather than looking a linear pattern you must use a weighted bell curve adjusting the weight of the votes based upon their location in the individuals candidates spectrum as well as along the overall spectrum.

Because of rounding this would be the closest situation for Emmer to win the election. When I worked on the weighted bell curve later I used 13.00527 as the percentage for Horner and 40.01761 and 2 percent voting for other parties.

I kept looking back at this model and saying something about it was correct.

Had I applied my later weighted bell curve to model, Dayton wins by 12,000 votes. Dayton's current lead is around 10,000 votes depending on which source you read, with DFL leaning precincts in Aitkin, Cass, Kandiyohi, and St. Louis Counties to report.

I never thought in a million years we would have turnout below 2.1 million voters, officially the count stands at 2.06 million voters. My second lowest model has 2.16 million voters and most of my models had 2.24 to 2.47 million votes. Guess that is why I do this as a hobby.

First thoughts in the AM

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

I am throughly stunned at the Republican take over of the State House and Senate. with such huge and commanding leads in both houses going into the night I am not sure anyone saw that as a possibility. In my home districts 56B and 56, I was completely shocked to see both the well liked Swails and Saltzman, both DFL, defeated.

chip Cravaak's win in the 8 CD is also stunning with most polls indicating Oberstar with a commanding lead two weeks ago, so much so little money was dumped into the race by either side.

I am surprised that Emmer is as close as he is in the Governor's race. I'll look later to see where the missing precincts are to see if the gap will close, but ...

it's clear that all of the soft support that Horner had built up vanished on election night, once in the booth the 5 to 10 percent decided a vote for Horner is a vote for the winner and they went on to select the lesser of two evils.

Horner concedes.

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

To who we don't know yet.

How's it breaking down

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

There is little question that all soft support has left the Horner campaign as the first results come in.

I have figured Horner would come in with 15 to 18 percent of the vote but it now appears that he will the 10 to 12 percent range.

The question becomes where does the 3 to 8 percent of the vote go since it has left Horner. Without exit polling we may not know exactly where it going, but early results suggest most went to Emmer. it will be interesting to watch the final results tomorrow.

Update on Where the Votes will Fall

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Based upon reports of Voter Turnout, some slight poll adjustments, my final guess-estimate

63

Dayton

Horner

Emmer

Leans Republican

951278.7

453648.1

830802.2

Slightly Republican

974806.6

500806.3

839969.5


 

I think those numbers for Horner is a bit high but Emmer's and Dayton's should be really close.

For those tracking I have 20 models representing voter turnout and how those voters tend to lean. The final change is a based upon higher than expected turnout in the Cities (DFL Strong Holds) and moderate to High in the Exurbs.

Not good news for the Republicans

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

At least in Minnesota.

It will be interesting to hear what the pundants say about voter turnout later in the day.

From what I am hearing and what is being reported else where; Early this morning there was a strong voter turnout in the more conservative areas but it has tappered off before lunch. While voter turnout was light in the Liberal leaning areas however it has been building and continues to be moderate to high in terms of turnout there.

I have heard from several sources about 1/2 hour or longer waits in multiple precints in Hennepin and Ramsey County, yet it is walk up and ghost towns in greater Washington County.

In coresponding with some friends around the country similiar patterns are showing up elese where. However it's early in the day and the easy access to absentee ballots may change many vote outcomes.

Letter from the MN IP Executive Committe

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Dear Friends,

Let's face it, we cannot afford another four years of spinning our wheels while Democrats and Republicans dig Minnesota deeper and deeper into debt.

Neither Mark Dayton or Tom Emmer have offered balanced, common sense solutions to move this state forward. Their band-aid proposals do nothing to improve the overall problems facing Minnesotans.

It's time to take back our state!

The greatest service you can do for your families and your communities is to get out and vote on Tuesday, November 2! For those who feel their voice no longer counts - I will only remind you of every voter who stood up for REAL change in November 1998, when you decided to do what was right for the State of Minnesota.

No one thought it could be done. Let's do it again.

Join us tonight at Midway Stadium in St. Paul at 9:30 p.m. when the Horner Rally Buses pull back in to St. Paul from a day of gathering with supporters throughout the state. Tom Horner, Jim Mulder, Sen. Dave Durenberger will be on hand with many others to fire up our Party into taking a stand tomorrow.

Spread the word and join us tonight:

Midway Stadium
1771 Energy Park Drive
St. Paul, MN 55108
(gates open at 8:30 p.m. Concessions will be open)

We hope you will join us for this exciting event tonight - but most important, we hope you will help us make history tomorrow. Vote for your Independence Party, vote for Tom Horner for Governor, and for more information our slate of candidates throughout the state, visit: www.mnip.org.

As always, we are grateful for your continued support. Tomorrow is election day. Now, let's get it done.

with best regards,
Executive Committee
Independence Party of Minnesota