Rasmussen Poll

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Okay is the ink dry from the primary.

You can read the details here.

Dayton - 45%
Emmer - 36%
Horner - 10%
Undecided - 10%

Okay being so much Media coverage of Dayton on the 11th and 12th probably account for the 5% bounce from a month ago.

Horner's First Commercial before the State Fair

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Tom Horner let slip today that the first commercial would air before the Minnesota State Fair (Aug 26).

Bill Crum joins the Horner Campaign.

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Team Horner recently hired “Communications Specialist” Bill Crum, a
recently laid off copy editor from the Star Tribune. Crum has been with the
paper for 10 years, also working as a night public safety team leader and editor
of Star Tribune South, a weekly suburban section. Before that, he spent 12 years
as the broadcast editor for the Associated Press in Portland, Oregon.

Crum will be in charge of writing news releases and manning the campaign
office at all times. That will give Horner’s Press Secretary, Matt Lewis, a
chance to travel more. “I want to get out in the field with Tom more and get a
sense on how he is handling his message,” Lewis said.

Lewis said he
needed someone who knows how to write and understands the media’s needs.

“I think that I offered a perspective of an experienced editor who
understands the needs of the media folks out there,” Crum said. “We want to do
everything we can to help Tom get his message out to readers and viewers.”

Crum joins Communications Director Lois West Duffy, Lewis, Coalitions
Director Marti Jones and Intern Colton Malkerson.

Mark Dayton calls for cease fire

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Not surprisingly DFL Candidate Mark Dayton is calling for a cease fire in the negative attack ads.
I hate to break this to you, it ain't happening. As mush as we despise and loath attacks add they work on the target group, undecided and those that may be waffling. And for Mark Dayton, a man who has many ghosts of politics past and personal demons he best get used to them because as long as he is perceived as being the front runner in the race they will be launched his way continually. He is best option would be to come out from his glass house and address the issues, he knows what they are, head on. The longer he stays in his house the more ads that will be lobbed his way.

As for Tom Horner's proclamation about not using them, the DFL and the GOP will be more than happy to do that.

Primaries Raise New Questions

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Another semi off topic article in the Minneapolis Star Tribune that address some political issues.

Tuesday's primary elections produced a series of seemingly contradictory claims and interpretations: a good night for outsiders and the Tea Party movement, an equally good night for incumbents and President Obama. What it all means for November is the real question.

Has the anti-incumbent fever begun to break? Appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's victory in Colorado, coming after Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln's win in Arkansas two months ago, might be seen as evidence that it has -- except Democratic strategists don't think that's necessarily the case.

Is Tom the Better Republican

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The Raabe Review asks is Tom Horner the Better Republican

Tom Horner is running for governor on Minnesota’s Independence Party ticket, but is he a better Republican than what the tea party has to offer? A native Minnesotan, Horner signed on to work for Dave Durenberger in 1978, and was his press secretary and chief of staff until 1985. U.S. Sen. Durenberger was a popular Republican whose three terms in the Senate began in a special election held after Sen. Hubert Humphrey passed away.

Although slightly off topic...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Interesting Opinion Piece in Rochester Post Bulletin but slightly off topic.

A few months ago, the Post-Bulletin's editorial board had a meeting with Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner, who admitted that personality-wise, he's no Jesse Ventura. He also acknowledged that in an ordinary election year, he'd have no chance of victory in November.

But then he made this prediction: With Tom Emmer on the right, and Mark Dayton on the left, the middle will be wide open for anyone willing to stand in it.

First Negative Ad to Air starting Thursday

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from MPR

The state's Republican Party kicked off the first day of the general election campaign for governor Wednesday by announcing plans to air a TV ad attacking DFL nominee Mark Dayton.


I am actually surprized the GOP is waited this long, they must have some sort of money shortage. I say that because Dayton, while providing ample targets of oppertunity for negative attacks, is the strongest of the three major candidates from the DFL and the GOP had to see an easier road to election with either Entenza or Kelliher on the ticket.

I'm a sensible Choice

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from the Star Tribune

Horner, a well-connected public affairs consultant, gave a broad glimpse of his
fall campaign strategy and said he intends to appeal to "the 60 to 70 percent of
Minnesotans who have been pushed to the sidelines" by Dayton's liberal
philosophy and Emmer's conservative rhetoric. Horner plans to raise roughly a
third of the $2.5 million in campaign money he needs by the end of this month.
He minimized Dayton's and Emmer's popularity by saying the two candidates
resonated only with "partisans" who participate in the primary.

An Appeal to the Moderate Middle

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article in the St. Paul Pioneer Press

"The critical issue in 2010, in this campaign, is going to be leadership,'' said Horner, contending he's the only candidate that offers a balanced vision for voters tired of political gridlock and excessive partisanship.

"This cannot be a debate over the status quo,'' he added.

Horner defeated four Independence Party candidates in Tuesday's primary and will face Republican Tom Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton in the general election.

So what do the numbers tell us?

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

In the 2002 Primary just under 40,000 people voted in the Independence Party Primary between Tim Penny/Martha Robertson and Bill Daun/Rome Hanson. A total of 481,294 people voted overall which represented 18.57% of the registered voters.

The initial results indicate 17,731 people voted in this year Independence Party Primary which was more highly contested, at least on paper, between Tom Horner/James Mulder and Rob Hahn/Tom Harens. A total of 589, 761 (plus) people voted overall representing 18.97% of registered voters.

Specifically what do those numbers tell us, well nothing and everything all at the same time. Since we are talking about such a small portion of the overall electorate you can almost draw any conclusion and that means it is for us "talking heads" to figure out what they mean and explain it to everyone.

In this year's primary just over 3% of the votes cast were for the Independence Party. That's slightly better or in line with results 1998 (2.6%), under 2002 results (8.3%) and more than 2006 result (2.3%). However if we look at 2002 we will note there is no large scale competition between any party, this year a feisty three way battle in the DFL raged. In 2006 again there were no major battles in other parties. In 1998 there was a feisty battle between Skip Humphrey, Mike Freeman, Doug Johnson, Mark Dayton, and Ted Mondale, sound familiar.

There are a lot of similarities to the 1998 election, no US Senate, no incumbent, a well known DFL candidate battling a rising star in the Democratic party. People in general fell disfranchised by the current political deadlock. So it is far to say we can use the 1998 election as a model.

Since 1998 Minnesota has not only seen a population growth but an overall increase in the percentage of people register as voters. There are a number of reasons for this, including the fast food like convenience of registering at the polls, the motor voter registration and other statistical changes to our demographics (living longer, fewer children, so on and so forth). If we use 1998 as our model that means 2.6 million people will vote for our next governor, an increase of 400,000 over the 2006 elections. Assuming that number is correct with 2.6 million votes at stake what will it take to win?

900,000 votes. Peter Hutchinson suggested that 1 million votes would win the 2006 election, I think in 2010, without another major election (US Senate) occurring that number may be as low as 900,000 votes.

What we need to watch for as we move forward, Tom Horner's polling numbers. For argument sake we will say he is at 10 percent, if he is still sitting at 10 percent come Sept 15th he will be a non-factor in the election; however if he continues to pull bigger numbers even a percentage point increase a week the momentum will build towards election.

Another telling sign will be how the Republican Candidate acts towards Horner's campaign. In 2006 Tim Pawlenty's campaign simply ignored the Hutchinson Campaign thus reducing the "free air-time" effect. The current Republican campaign cannot do that. At some point they will need to take the gloves off and refer to Tom by name. The moment that happens it will be almost a two point bump to Horner's campaign. Right now the Emmer Campaign needs to address the issue of taking on a well known name in the DFL. I suspect the gloves will come off early in that battle, say at the First Debate on August 13th.

The money issue, which is driven by the first two issues, is obviously the most important issue. It is easier to raise money as you move up in the polls than staying stagnant or declining and the more personal the opposing parties (notably the Republican Party because they are behind right now) the easier it is to raise money.

So the numbers tell me that we are looking at a similar situation to 1998 and that is a good thing if you are supporter of the IP.

Emphysizing leadership

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

An Article in the Coon Rapids paper Emphsizes Tom Belief in Leadership

Horner, who readily defeated Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Rob Hahn and other IP rivals last night in the primary, at a Capitol press conference spoke of the election being about leadership.

“This cannot be a debate over the status quo,” he said.

Claiming the Middle and What is Tom Thinking

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

From MPR

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is in a fairly strong position. He has almost sole claim to "the middle" in a general election of two candidates on the far end of their party's philosophy. He may be the first candidate, likely trailing in a three-way race, to act like a long-time incumbent.
The day after election night, Horner rejected every media invitations for free air time. WCCO's TV coverage this morning pointed out that it invited Horner to appear for a live interview and he rejected the invitation. "His loss," reporter Pat Kessler intoned. He's right. Normally, when you get free media time, you take it.

Horner scheduled a news conference this morning, and scheduled it well before the polls closed last evening. It's at 11:30 this morning. In Mankato.

Horner's message is clear: "I'll talk about the election on my terms." Fine. But MPR is not likely to provide live coverage of a news conference and neither are local TV stations. So why give up free airtime to get your name and face "out there"? I don't have an answer other than pure speculation that Horner intends to be the frontrunner merely by acting like one. He is, afterall, a public relations expert.

If we can make all the oil in the Gulf disappear, merely by saying "it's gone," who's to say the strategy won't work?

Horner cruises to victory

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

It appears that Tom Horner has cruised to an easy victory in the Primary. With 25% of the precincts reporting he has a 5,000 vote lead. At this stage Rob Hahn would need almost six out of seven votes cast that are not reported yet to overtake Tom Horner.

I stated a couple times earlier in the week that Tom was probably a runaway winner. I was worried going into last week that there would be a lot closer race, but it after a few appearances and when Rob Hahn reverted back to some old attack tactics I decided it was not even close.

Quick article from Winona

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from Winona Radio Stations

Still, Horner has caused anxiety among Republicans who fear the former public relations director could chew into conservative state Rep. Tom Emmer's base. Emmer coasted to a win in the GOP primary Tuesday and is trying to extend Republicans' eight-year hold on the governor's office.

Tom Horner’s Open Letter to MN Forward

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

MINNEAPOLIS, Aug. 6 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is being released by Horner2010:

Dear Brian:

Here I am.

MN Forward is seeking to support candidates of any stripe who are pro-business. That's me. In fact, I think I am the MOST pro-business candidate in this year's gubernatorial race.  Of course, maybe we define pro-business a bit differently. I think a pro-business candidate is one who supports an economic environment in which start-up businesses can flourish, well-paying jobs are being created in the private sector, and Minnesota is seen as a great place for all businesses -- those already here and those we want to attract -- because it's a great place to live.

You see, I think the business climate in Minnesota isn't just about which candidate will cut spending the most or who has the most strident anti-tax rhetoric. But for Minnesota to flourish -- for ALL Minnesotans to do well -- the state needs the kind leadership that successful business leaders understand: the importance of investing in people and making our state one in which the hard work of all people is rewarded, the talents of everyone are respected and the opportunities for all people are not capped by prejudice.

So here's my pro-business agenda:

  • Balance the budget. This will take hard decisions and significant spending cuts. It also will take the discipline other candidates have lacked to say NO to special interests, even if YES might buy some short-term political cover. 
  • Reform a tax system that is out-of-date and suppresses job creation. I am the only candidate who is proposing a comprehensive package of tax reform -- reducing taxes on job creation while raising the revenue needed to invest in Minnesota's future.
  • Invest in Minnesota's future. We will be the knowledge state in my administration -- a state that makes early learning a priority so that all children enter school prepared for success. We will invest in lifelong learning, from cradle to grave. Along with education, Minnesota needs to once again make smart investments in health and our state's infrastructure.  It was noteworthy that at FarmFest -- talking to the drivers of one of our state's most important industries -- I was the only candidate who highlighted the need to invest in rail and 10-ton roads. A great harvest (or great manufactured products or great anything) loses its value if we can't get it to market.
  • Make applied and basic research at the University of Minnesota and our other institutions of higher learning a state priority. Minnesota must be a leader in innovation, new ideas and cutting-edge technologies. If we follow my tax proposals, research becomes the engine for ideas to come to market creating Minnesota businesses and Minnesota jobs. 
  • Revitalize our communities. I've proposed a five-point plan to strengthen Minnesota's rural communities, making sure that every person in every community has the opportunity to prosper.
  • Streamline the regulatory and permitting process. In my administration, every permit request will be resolved in six months. Guaranteed.
  • Attract the best talent pool in the nation. Ultimately, Minnesota's greatest strength -- and our greatest pro-business asset -- are our people. We need to be a state that welcomes diversity.


     

    That's my agenda, and I'm eager to compare it to the Minnesota agenda of any other candidate.

    Sincerely,

    Tom Horner

    Prepared and paid by Horner2010

    SOURCE Horner2010