Another Poll

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KSTP/Survey USA Poll posted Here.

The Star Tribune posted some analysis of a latest poll, by KSTP/Survey USA.

Some Highlights, Matt Entenza has made an increase making it a three way race in the DFL Primary.

Tom Horner is at 12 %.

Horner - Sells remian Stock in Himle-Horner

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Article Here

Tom Horner - Statement on the U of MN Regents Advisory Committee

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Tom Horner's Statement.

U-M Regents dropped the ball in naming advisory committee to recommend next prez. Six professors on a 12-person committee? I'm calling for the regents to add business people (large and small employers); people from Greater MN who know
the challenges of our rural communities; and, experts on online education -- lifelong learning will be essential; we need people who understand how to make it happen.

There are two Higher Education institutions in the State of Minnesota, the University of Minnesota (U of M) and the Minnesota State College and University system (MNSCU) and while both of these great institutions provide for the Higher Education needs of the State, they have two greatly different prerogatives (for the lack of better term) on how that goal is to be achieved.

MNSCU is chartered or guided by the Legislature to provide the people of Minnesota with access to Higher Education, providing Technical Training, Certificates, Two Year and Four Year Degrees, and recently Advanced Degrees.

The U of MN is a Land Grant University with three distinct missions, regardless of how we feel about it General Higher Education is not among the three missions of the U of MN. Research, Education, and outreach are the stated goals of the U of MN.

To the average individual Education is Education, what separates MNSCU from the U of MN is the goal of education. MNSCU goal in education is to prepare individuals to fill needs in and of the State, while U of MN goal is more to prepare those people to for its other mission statements (Research and Outreach). In one of the greatest simplifications MNSCU is mandated to teach how to do something while the U of MN is mandated to teach to understand why we do something and to think about how to do that something better. Both of those ARE very great and important deeds and requirements of our society.

As both the U of MN and MNSCU are looking for new leaders, your statement is far truer about how MNSCU should look for its next Chancellor rather than the U of MN should look for its next President.
Online Education currently should be the purview of MNSCU; it fits their mission better than that of the U of MN. Small Employers, why what can they bring to the table for an organization that has a cyclical budget and employees tens of thousands of people. Arguing that the President of 3M should be included is one thing but Mom and Dad’s Convenience Store* is a whole different matter. Challenges of the Rural Community, what has that got to do with the University of Minnesota? Again I understand how systems work (butterfly wings in china = greatest snow storm in Minnesota history in August), but again they are better and more qualified people (than just being from Rural Minnesota).
Basically you are suggesting that I should be invited to sit on the Advisory Committee to Ford Motor Company simply because I drive a Ford Vehicle. In that case I just don’t bring enough to the table.

You also need to consider where the Money comes from, at MNSCU 1.3 Billion dollars of its 1.7 billion dollar budget comes from Tuition, Fees, and State Funding; on the other hand the University total budget of 1.7 Billion dollars 1.2 Billion dollars comes from Tuition Fees and State Funding, but there is a large addition to the U of MN Budget, Capital Expenditures, Self-Sustaining and Federal Funded projects are not included in that amount, neither are the budget of Fairview University Hospital. If you examine the total budget for the U of MN it receive as little as 41% of its budget from the State and that amount is getting less every year. If the current trend continues in the very near future, say 2016, the U of MN will receive less than 25% of its funding from the State. And People think the U of MN “thumbs it nose” now at State, wait until that point.

While I agree that the U of MN advisory committee should be broader, but not in the way you are thinking. There should be Provosts, College Presidents (emeritus), and other leaders from OTHER Large Land Grant Universities should represent the largest segment of the advisory committee. The problem is those individuals from other Institutions probably wouldn’t serve on the U’s committee. So the Regents set up a committee with the best that they can get.

*Please note my parents ran a small Convenience Store in the Vacation Country. So I understand the challenges of “small town rural Minnesota.” I go see it on a regular basis.

If you want to argue there is no reason anymore for Two Systems, or for Fairview University Hospital to be separate, or… Those are totally different arguments. Both President Brunnicks and Chancellor McCormick have stated that maybe it is time for the State to re-evaluate how these systems work.

So what did the Decision Resource LTD poll actually tell us?

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

On the 7th the Pioneer Press published a poll by Decision Resource LTD that lead to a compliant (multiple complaints actually) by the GOP against the Horner Campaign. So what did we learn specifically about the election, the answer to those who don't watch politics close might be kind of shocking, nothing, or at least nothing about the actual election if you will accept that. We learn a little bit about the state of the people of Minnesota collectively, but the information released by the poll doesn't really tell us much new information on the election.

How is the poll different than the two earlier polls, first we don't get the demographic information (publically) that the two previous polls gave us, which is a key to understanding what the poll is telling us. Now I am told that information exists and people who pay Decision Resources LTD actually get to see it, but those of us on the sideline haven't or won't. As with the other polls, this is a first poll, a starting point for what polls in a few weeks look like, and that matters more.

This poll however is getting a lot more attention because of the complaint filed by the GOP. IS that a good or bad thing? For the GOP it is a relatively inexpensive way to attempt to discredit you opponent, if it works great if not the GOP hasn't really invested anything into it. Like others are saying the GOP knew they misfiled the compliant, and they did it intentionally. By misfiling the compliant they keep the credibility of the compliant in peoples' minds and more importantly they are attempting to keep the IP talking about how the information is in accurate as presented by the GOP, rather than focusing on fund raising and other strategic discussions. However there is more public backlash against the GOP this time around than actions like this have been in the past, something the GOP will need to keep in the back of their mind when the next issue pops up.

The GOP compliant I think also highlights how the GOP plans on running its campaign, or at least the negative part of the campaign. Between now and the Primary Emmer's team will be focusing on the Horner's campaign. After the Primary they will turn their attention to the winner of the DFL primary. Will the strategy work, my thoughts on that later.

Tom Horner's name is getting out there, but getting to 15% is the easy part, it's getting to 20%, 25% and 35% that is the hard part. The Horner's campaign ability to raise money will be tied to where the campaign is in terms of percentage; the higher the percentage grows the easier it will be to raise money. Think of it logarithmically rather than linearly. Say at 10% you can raise $100, at 15% you can raise $1000 and at 20% $5000 and at 33% you can raise $100000. Well those numbers are completely factious it does highlight how the system works.

The real key in these results are how some other numbers look. To me a couple of numbers standout, first the strong negative perception of Education Minnesota (and unions in general.) Unions as a whole have been seeing their membership decline and fewer union members obviously means less sway, you make up for this by going "statewide" with you union message. I think that Education Minnesota is stumbling over its own feet for the past few months, and this polls indicates I am not alone it message is achieve the opposite result. If that continues it may be bad thing to be endorsed by Education Minnesota and Unions in general.

Now I want to be clear I am not saying unions as a whole are bad, rather their message is being lost and they will be marginalized by their own accord.

Mankato Free Press - Tom Horner and the GOP

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

The Mankato Free Press published an article yesterday concerning the GOP current fasination with Tom Horner.

The state GOP has sent out seven press releases to The Free Press about IP
candidate Tom Horner since he officially kicked off his campaign for governor,
all of them attacking the former Republican and public relations firm executive.
The latest criticize Horner for not releasing his list of clients and for allegedly improperly receiving polling results before they were published.

Off-Subject – College Conference Re-alignment

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

As many of you know I am a die-hard college sport fan(atic) between today and Friday there will be seismic realignment of big schools, probably the largest shift since the founding of the NCAA (and death of the NAIA).

My friends at the University of Texas tell me that the President of University of Texas, Powers Steering, informed the members of the Athletic Department that University of Nebraska is leaving the Big XII Conference and thus the Big XII Conference will cease to exist in or after 2012 school year. What's amazing about that, at least to me, is the Texas Christian University and University of Arkansas would like to join the Big 12, so even if the University of Missouri were to leave the Big XII Conference there are two geographically consistent major universities that would readily available. However there is little question that University of Texas feels that more money and easier access to it sports could be had in the Pac-10 than a reworked Big XII. Now however the politics of Texas come into play, will Baylor University be included in the move into the Pac-10 or will the University of Colorado. Baylor University has many alumni in powerful positions in Texas Government, not the Governor office at this time like when the Big XII was formed, but none the less people in position to make it extremely miserable for UT (and Texas Tech and Texas A&M) so my guess over the next few days we will see flexing of lots of political muscle in Baylor's regard.

It is widely assumed that University of Missouri and Rutgers University (State University of New Jersey) will also be in the Big Ten stable shortly. The question for the Big Ten is who will be the other two Universities to join the Big Ten, bringing the Big Ten to 16 Schools. Again it widely assumed that an invitation to apply will be offered to Notre Dame and another Big East school. I personally think University of Pittsburg would be a better fit, but others are suggesting Syracuse University or University of Connecticut. If Notre Dame decides not to accept the invitation all bets are off for the other schools, beyond Missouri and Rutgers. University of Maryland, United States Naval Academy, United States Military Academy (AKA West Point) (The Big Ten on AFN every week), Vanderbilt University, University of Tennessee (could you imagine Neyland Stadium in the Big Ten, I mean you could have 1.25 million fans at a Big Ten Football games on an early August Saturday) and the list of other suitors is indeed long.

I must assume we will have super conferences by the end of the next week, if not sooner. The Pac-16, the Big Ten. The Big XII will cease to exist, the Big East will also probably cease to exist. The University of Kansas, Kansas State University, Boise State University and maybe Colorado University will be off to join the Mountain West Conference and maybe two other schools making a 16 team conference (cough University of Nevada and Iowa State cough). The Western Athletic Conference (WAC) will need to find some new Division I schools (assuming the loss of Boise State and University of Nevada defection to MWC) which will be the hardest conference to fill. There just aren't enough Big Schools in the West to fill the bill (Texas El Paso?)

Conference USA will get several Big East Schools (three I think – Cincinnati University, Louisville University, and which ever school the Big Ten Doesn't take (Syracuse/Pittsburg) and the Two military academies USMA, USNA) to become a Super Conference (I should note the Two Military Academies would prefer to remain independent even more so than Notre Dame but probably will have no choice if they wish to remain FBS, leaving the ACC and SEC to decide what they want to do, again I assume super conferences of 16 schools. Who remains, West Virginia University, South Florida University, University of Connecticut, and the schools of the Sun Belt.

The ACC and the SEC must decide quickly or they will be left behind. The ACC may target the Military Academies, West Virginia and UConn which is a strong addition to the Conference; however the problem is the SEC, they are in the weakest position to expand, the Texas Schools have already spurned them, South Florida is not necessarily a sports power, so the conference to raid is the ACC, Florida State, University of Miami and a couple of others are nice, but those schools don't bring more TV sets into the conference realm… I think the SEC is in a word in trouble.

Okay enough ranting for a few hours.

Article on Bob Anderson

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Story on Bob Anderson on Hometownsource.com

Campaign Finance Board reject GOP Compliant

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The Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board notified the GOP that it will not investigate the claim by the GOP the Horner's Campaign received an illegal corporate contribution. Gary Goldsmith, Director of the Board announced that the ruling is based in part because the Minnesota Campaign Finance and Public Disclosure Board does not enforce or administer the law in question.

The GOP immediately announced they would refile their compliant with the Office of Administrative Hearings.

Is the GOP crying Wolf?

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Today to members of the GOP filed a formal complaint about a comment made yesterday on Twitter by the Horner Campaign, the question is "did the Horner Campaign gain inside information based upon Tom Horner's position and relationship with Decision Resources LTD?"

Several facts in the case stand for themselves.

  • The Horner Campaign received the results after they were released exclusively to the Pioneer Press.
  • The posting on Twitter was made almost 24 hours after the results were released to the Pioneer Press.
  • Any candidate could have requested the results from Decision Resources LTD.

With little question it "appears" that the GOP is crying wolf. Tom Emmer's minor bump in the polls thanks to the GOP convention is long gone and now his campaign knows they trail all three DFL candidates by a comfortable margin. Support for Horner continues to grow. Whether it is 12%, 15% or 18% is not the point but rather that Horner's percentage continues to grow is.

Members of the GOP file compliant against Horner’s campaign

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

They charge that the Horner Campaign received information from Decision Resources, LTD that no one else had.

Pioneer Press Story

KSTP Story

MPR Story

I must assume this is the posting in question from Twitter:

Must be bad Emmer poll coming. GOP stepping up attacks. Must be spinning their
candidate's collapse. Can we get a preview? How bad is it?

Posted at 2:09 PM on July 7th.



UPDATE
Release from the Horner Campaign
The Minnesota Republican Party is in full desperation mode. Their candidate is sinking, and instead of acknowledging their blunder in selecting an extremist candidate, they choose to go on the attack.

Minnesotans want more from their candidates this year. They want candidates who are addressing the issues of jobs, education and Minnesota's budget deficit. The survey is available to the Minnesota Republican Party. Perhaps they should use it to understand their candidate's shortcomings in the eyes of Minnesotans.

The Horner campaign learned last week of the survey being conducted by Decision Resources Ltd. Decision Resources was contacted by Stephen Imholte, campaign manager, who asked when the data might be available.

Imholte was informed that it was being released exclusively to the Pioneer Press on Sunday, June 6. Dr. Bill Morris provided the Horner campaign with data only after the survey information had been released to the newspaper. Before releasing information to the Horner campaign, Dr. Morris confirmed that the same data were being released to the Pioneer Press, and other campaigns and candidates at their request.

After the Pioneer Press news article was posted on the newspaper's web site, the Horner campaign released its own commentary on the findings through Twitter, Facebook and to other news media. It developed its analysis from the data provided by Decision Resources after release to the news media.

Decision Resources routinely conducts in-house surveys and occasionally releases findings to the news media. This survey covered a range of topics on Minnesota issues and the Minnesota gubernatorial race. The survey was not specific to any candidate but was a general overview of Minnesota issues. While the principals of Decision Resources are supporters of Tom Horner, the Horner campaign was not involved in any way in the design of the survey and had no knowledge of the findings until after its release to the news media.

If the Republican Party sincerely believed there was a violation, it would have asked for this background instead of wasting the time of the Minnesota Campaign and Finance Disclosure Board. Instead, the party of no ideas now also seems to have no campaign strategy or message for Minnesotans.

Poll by Decision Resources LTD, published in the Pioneer Press

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Another poll shows Independence Endorsed Candidate Tom Horner gaining in the polls. Decision Resources LTD of Minneapolis released a poll of 800 Minnesota adults to which Bill Salisbury of the St. Paul Pioneer Press wrote about here.

The Poll shows leads by all three DFL gubernatorial candidates over Republican Tom Emmer with Independence Party Candidate Tom Horner in third place with 15 to 18 percent of the vote.

When I get a little more time I will put some more analytical thinking into the numbers. But a couple of things caught my eye: 66% of the respondents thought Education Minnesota was more interested in protecting their paychecks than improving K-12 Education, only 21% of the respondents were against abortion and same-sex marriage (that has to be written incorrectly) and 53 percents believed the problem is not political parties but incumbants.

Back from Vacation

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

After four quiet days of vacation I'm back: of course a lot happened in those four days.

  • Tom Horner had a "Mondale Moment"
  • A New poll was released
  • Dr. Maureen Reed withdrew for the Sixth District Congressional Race
  • Some interesting Articles about the DFL being in the spot light
  • More pressure on Tom Horner to disclose his Client List
  • Articles in several papers addressing what may be the hot button issues of the upcoming election cycle.

On a personal note I have been considering running for Office in a future election, but that's for another time.

Interesting Article in Today's Star Tribune.

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

In an widely circulated article Kevin Freking and Robin Hindery ask an incredible important question, is electability more important than ideology?

In Minnesota we have a similiar situation in the Sixth Congressional District with Michelle Bachmann and host ofothers running for her seat.

New Series of Links

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

I have posted a list of web-links to candidates running under the IP banner on the left side.

This is by no way a complete list, but rather those that listed a web-site on their candidacy forms when the filed for office.

As more web-site become available they will be added to the list.

Additions or Corrections - email me at mnip-blog@hotmail.com

Amy E. Smith - Endorsed Candidate in Senate District 65

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

I would like to provide everyone with a link to Amy E. Smith's website.

Amy is the Endorsed Candidate for Senate in District 65, St. Paul. She is battling the incumbant Sandra L. Pappas (DFL) and Rick Karschnia (R).

Good Luck Amy!

Press Release - Jim Mulder

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Strengthening Minnesota Communities to be Focus of Lieutenant Governor Pick

MINNEAPOLIS and ST. PAUL, Minn., June 1 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- Tom Horner, Independence Party Candidate for governor, today announced Jim Mulder as his choice for lieutenant governor. Horner said that Mulder's addition to the ticket reinforces his campaign's commitment to fix the budget, create jobs, and revitalize Minnesota communities. This partnership will end the "pass-the-buck" mentality that is forcing many school districts to go to four-day weeks, cities to cut public safety and communities around the state to struggle economically.

For the past 21 years, Mulder served as executive director of the Association of Minnesota Counties (AMC) where he led the administrative operations, legislative, and communications efforts that support Minnesota's 87 counties. During his tenure, he developed a comprehensive training program for member counties on managing change, revitalizing communities, and developing future leaders.

Mulder also worked as the county coordinator and chief operating officer for McLeod County. Early in his career, he worked for the House of Representatives in caucus research and as tax committee administrator conducting public policy research and analysis.

Horner said he sought three qualities in a lieutenant governor: "First, it is important that the lieutenant governor be a person of substance and experience, someone Minnesotans will trust as having the ability and skills to help lead the state through four years that will be extremely challenging.

"Second, given the scope of the challenges Minnesota faces, a lieutenant governor should have the ability to manage a key portfolio, one that will help define the state's future. There are few issues more important than redesigning the relationship between state and local governments. Traveling the state, you see how so many counties, communities and school districts are being pushed to the edge by pass-the-buck state policies.

"We need to create policies for where Minnesotans live, not where legislators work," said Horner.

"The third quality is a person who can help take this campaign to all 87 counties. While other candidates claim to have visited all 87 counties as part of a campaign, Jim has done it many times over as part of building a better state," said Horner.

Horner also pointed out that neither he nor Mulder have sought office before. "We are not politicians. We are people who have invested our careers in public policy, community service and business," said Horner. "We bring the perspective of people who aren't tied up in politics with the knowledge of those who know how government works and how to get things done."

Mulder said that for Minnesota to succeed, "We must have healthy, safe communities. That's where government puts the boots on the ground. Basic services such as clean water, police and fire, water treatment and so many more are what make each community flourish. A community cannot meet the healthy standard without healthy schools, healthy cities and towns and healthy counties. As part of the campaign, and as lieutenant governor, my role will be to listen to the concerns of local government elected officials. I will be the point of the spear for local government in the Horner-Mulder campaign and will be meeting with commissioners, mayors and city councilmen, town supervisors and school board members to share ideas and solutions to the challenges we face."

"In Jim Mulder, Minnesota has a candidate of substance, vision and innovation," said Horner. "I invited him to join the ticket because he is the best person for the job, not because of political considerations. In Jim Mulder, Minnesotans have insight into the high-quality people who will be invited to serve with me in my administration."

For more information regarding Horner's campaign and Jim Mulder, log on to www.Horner2010.com.

Prepared and Paid for Horner2010


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Horner chooses Jim Mulder

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

Independence Party Endorsed candidate Tom Horner has selected Jim Mulder as his pick for Lieutenant Governor.


Jim Mulder is retired Minnesota County Association leader (an organization that represents all 87 counties) and is a strong indicator that Tom Horner is going to be focusing not only on the Twin Cities Metro Area but across the state with his campaign.