It's Official - Recount to start

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The State Canvassing Board has confirmed the vote totals and the recount officially starts on Monday.

No word yet on whether the Board denied Emmer's request.

Emmer will ask the State Canvasing Board to do...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

Exactly what the Minnesota Supreme Court refused to do.

FROM MPR
Now, attorneys for Republican Tom Emmer are expected to ask the five member State Canvassing Board to do what the Supreme Court didn't -- require local
elections officials to match up the number of ballots cast with the number of voters who signed in on Election Day.

I have a sneaking suspicion that the Canvasing Board will decline Mr. Emmer's request as well, call it hunch.

It appears as if the GOP is on a delaying tactic at this moment.

MN Supreme Court refuses to intevene

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

In a very quick decision the Minnesota Supreme Court refused to intervene on Tom Emmer and the GOP behalf on the grounds of "over votes". A full decision will be released at a later date.

From MPR

The Minnesota Supreme Court ruled late this afternoon that it would not intervene the likely recount of the votes in the state's still-undecided governor's race. Republican Tom Emmer had asked the court to force county elections officials to reconcile the number of ballots cast on November second with the signatures of people as they signed in to vote. The court heard arguments on the issue earlier this afternoon and issued its decision denying Emmer's petition just a few minutes ago.

Hennepin County Response to Emmer's Request

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

gov race

What comes first...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

One of the oldest questions asked by ancient philosophers is the casualty dilemma, “what comes first the chicken or the egg?” Metaphorically the ancient philosophers were discussing life with that question but as we look towards the future of the Independence Party of Minnesota we have a similar problem. What comes first the Money or the Structure?

The infrastructure of the Party is dependent on Money but without the infrastructure can the IP raise the money? It is another casualty dilemma that will be plaguing the Party Leadership as the year progress and the Party begins to prepare for the 2012 election cycle.

The IP cannot hope for success without building the party infrastructure. The infrastructure the party needs is branding itself as being different than both parties, keeping people active in the party, the ability to organize volunteers, and the ability to raise money.

As William Labovitch in his letter to the Editor of the Star Tribune writes “It's time the Independence Party stops running candidates and runs on the only message it ever had: None of the above.” The problem of course is that is nowhere near the truth. Anyone who watched the Tom Horner’s campaign saw the message “No Left, No Right, but Forward” to borrow Peter Hutchinson’s campaign slogan. Horner proposed many vastly different solutions than either of the other candidates and spent hours explaining the difference but if the common Joe only knows or hears “None of the above” than there is a branding issue that needs to be addressed.

As Tom Horner suggests in his editorial to the Star Tribune:

the political center needs to be branded. Accurately or not, Minnesotans define the political left as the defenders of social justice, where the interests of Everyday Joe or Jane take priority over Wall Street. If this requires bigger government, so be it. On the political right, Minnesotans see a party perceived to be for business and smaller government. The right is seen as the home of "traditional values."
As for the political center, for too many Minnesotans there is no definition. It's a political mash-up, a bit of this and a bit of that without any clarity and, worse, without any core principles. There needs to be a clear and compelling answer to the question, "What does it mean to be a political centrist?"
Of course as a former Moderate Republican, I instinctly know what the center of the political spectrum, but how do I explain and “sell” that knowledge to another potential voter. Maybe the new motto should be “the best of both worlds; working to improve the life of the common Joe by partnering with the Business.”
“Best of Both Worlds” needs to be a starting point a simple rallying point for the political center and it needs to be expressed in a platform and plank. If the platform of the Party continues to be centered on the Party and not political spectrum than the slogan is lost.
The current first item of the core values of the IP reads “A democratic process with integrity and broad citizen participation” I would suggest it should be rewritten “Empowering and Engaging citizens to be involved in the democratic process with integrity and tolerant ideals.” Well that is my first attempt at that sentence, but while they mean virtually the same thing the second sentence is more appealing and attractive to the casual voter.
This concept needs to be heard by more than those in just the Party and sooner than the next election, and that’s what the Party Leadership needs to do, speak out. MPR, morning news shows, letters to the editors, speaking engagements,

The next issue is one that I have complained about for years, the inability to keep people involved with the party after the election. I’ll be honest I am no different than your average Joe, none election season and I hardly write or post anything, however once the election season starts. For the party to grow and bloom that needs to change. Where are people like John Binkowski, Jim Haviland, Peter Hutchinson, Tim Penny. A few of us know that some of these people are still involved but the IP needs to better engage these former candidates and get them involved in preparing, recruiting, and fund raising for the party and it next generation of candidates.
But it goes beyond the former candidates (and their staffs) but to the general volunteers and those that provided financial support for the process. These people are just as important to the party, especially moving forward. Horner has called these people the Grassroots of the party. It could be something as small as a $50 donation to the party or attending a political rally or fundraiser. All of this is important as the party moves forward.
One of the problems with the IP and many geographically dispersed groups’ is that the call for action is both local and regional in nature and that requests sent to everyone become toned out because there are so many. I can’t tell you how often over the past year I saw requests for “volunteers” in places well beyond my general vicinity. In the end all these requests became no better than spam. The IP needs a better system of ‘spearing’ or getting the people closest to the event notified and leaving those further away off the list. Even if it means losing one or two people from across the state if the requests seem more local more people should want to involved. You live in SW Minnesota than you should hear about the events in the South West Minnesota, not the NE or the NW or… Stay Local.
This also needs to include expanding the “get togethers” and the what not. The next time that the IP gets together shouldn’t be the caucus in spring. We need to start now to empower more people.

Finally the party needs a better fundraising apparatus. It needs to allow people to contribute on different scales and means than the current system. The average donation is like $45 a year per individual and if the IP wants to move forward than it needs to get that amount from the core group and next orbit of people. Simple math if 100,000 people donate $45 a year than the IP has raised $4.5 million dollars, considering that amount is nothing compared to what the big two parties raise it is more than enough to be competitive in 2012.

Supreme Court Order

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

ORA102022-1118

Horner in the Star Tribune

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Read the full Editorial here

And while I can't speak for all candidates, I know my campaign -- and those of Jesse Ventura, Tim Penny and Peter Hutchinson before me -- wasn't ego-driven. I and the other IP gubernatorial candidates represent a large swath of Minnesota voters who are ignored by the DFL and GOP. There is much evidence to suggest that we speak for much broader audiences than our vote totals suggest
.

GOP sues before Recount even starts

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Read the MPR report here



Before the details are released it appears teh GOP is suing to get "excess" ballots removed from precincts where more ballots were cast then people registered.

More Details to follow

Star Tribune letters to the Editor

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Read the Letters here.

Matt Lewis, Press Secretary for the IP Candadate Tom Horner Writes:

Horner didn't take votes; he earned them
The Independence Party does not "take" votes: It earns them ("Tom Horner wins -- well kind of, sort of," Nov. 14).

More than a quarter-million Minnesotans voted for Horner for governor. It is a smaller base than the other two major parties. But multiple elections prove it significant.


There is also a letter from William Labovitch who simple states:
The governor's race outcome is still pending, and yet everybody knows Horner did
not win.

It's time the Independence Party stops running candidates and runs on the only message it ever had: None of the above.

Hutchinson to speak in Willmar

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

The 2006 Inpendence Candidate for Gorvernor and current President of the Bush Foundation Peter Hutchinson will be speaking in Willmar on December 2nd.

WILLMAR — Peter Hutchinson, president of the Bush Foundation, will speak in
Willmar on Dec. 2.

Hutchinson is also a former state finance commissioner and was the 2006 Independence Party candidate for governor.

He will speak on “Government Service Redesign and Spending Reform” from noon to 1:30 p.m. at the Willmar Conference Center, hosted by the Willmar Lakes Area Chamber of Commerce.

Cost is $10, including lunch. To make reservations, call 320-235-0300 or e-mail chamber@willmar areachamber.com.

Hutchinson will talk about the problems facing Minnesota and outline the kind of leadership it will take to solve them.

Hutchinson has been president of the St. Paul-based Bush Foundation since December 2007. The foundation was established in 1953 by 3M executive Archibald Granville Bush and his wife Edyth. Its aim is to help improve the lives of the people of Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota and in the 23 sovereign tribal nations in those states. In 2009, the Foundation made grants of approximately $35 million.

Before moving to the foundation, Hutchinson was co-founder of the Public Strategies Group, a St. Paul company that redesigns and transforms governments throughout the world. He also served as the vice president for external affairs for the Dayton Hudson Corp. and chairman of the Dayton Hudson Foundation. He was superintendent of the Minneapolis Public Schools and was a deputy mayor in Minneapolis. Hutchinson is coauthor with David Osborne of “The Price of Government: Getting the Results We Need in an Age of Permanent Fiscal Crisis.”

Recount Times and Locations Announced

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Governor 1

A story that deserves ridicule

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

A Blog posting by Jason Hoppin in the Pioneer Press/

During a chat over the weekend, Washington Post political reporter Chris Cillizza pegs Chip Cravaack as a one-term House member, likely to lose his seat in 2012.

Obviously it's early -- Cravaack hasn't even taken the oath and is literally going to freshman orientation today -- but Cillizza says voters in the the 8th Congressional District are likely to want to return a Democrat to the seat next election.


We're not so sure. The Cook Political Report rates the district as +3 Democrat, which isn't overwhelmingly partisan. And Iron Range Democrats are more conservative than their urban counterparts.

Furthermore, redistricting will likely have an effect on the district. With Michele Bachmann's 6th District seeing big population gains over the last decade, it's likely the 8th District would take on some of the 6th's voters, spilling more red into a blue district.


The first step in this discussion is to look at the US Census population estimates for the Counties in the 8 US CD, notable St. Louis, Chisago, Carlton, Benton, ... and come up with the current estimates. 616,000 thousand people according to the 2009 estimates or just under 12% of Minnesota Total Population.
Eight US CDs puts the percentage at 12.5%. Wow there will be a big shift there.
Of course that assumes that Minnesota does indeed have eight seats when it is announced later in the year and the population estimates are somewhat correct.
I doubt you'll see a big shift in the 8 US CD boundries.
Now the problem is the 4 US CD, which is St. Paul, Maplewood, Oakdale and a few other little suburbs on the east side of St. Paul. Population estimates there are only 570,000 range, you would need Lake Elmo, Stillwater, Grant and the other exurbs between Stillwater and I94. Hum, doesn't that include Michele Bachmann's residence?

Article by Horner for MPR

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

You can read the full article here.

I will be adding some comments in a little later after I have had time to digest the entire thing.

Survey USA - Post Election

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

KSTP/Survey USA did another survey and the crosstab results are here

If Tom Horner was in the election who would you have voted for:
Emmer - 29
Dayton - 37
Other Candidate - 22
Not Voted - 11
Unsure - 1

While the Republicans still are "screaming" about the vote leaning, because Horner Lost so much support in the last week I figured the results of any survey would look like this. It's back to the core IP voters, which lean Democrate.

MPR - Humphrey Poll - Audit

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

From the MPR and U of MN

Minnesota Public Radio and the University of Minnesota's Humphrey Institute say they'll be taking a close look at how they conducted polls before the election.

They said in a statement today the process will include an internal review by the Humphrey Institute, and an independent audit by Frank Newport, the editor and chief of Gallup.

The MPR-Humphrey Institute polls were accused of consistently overstating support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mark Dayton.

The final pre-election poll gave Dayton a 12-point lead over Republican Tom Emmer. But Dayton's lead in the voting was under half of 1 percentage point, pending a recount.

MPR and the Humphrey Institute say they'll be looking at whether there's a problem with their methodology or if other factors explain the difference.

MPR and the Humphrey Institute partnered this year to conduct four polls leading up to Election Day. The final poll, based on interviewing begun nearly two weeks before Election Day, showed results significantly different from the final election tally. This issue will be examined along with the raw data from other polls to determine whether there is a methodological reason for the difference, or whether external events account for the difference.

"We are committed to a transparent review of our polling methodology because we value the importance of continuous improvement in our efforts," said Professor Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute's Center for the Study of Politics and Government. "If a shortcoming is identified, we will fix it. If not, we will have third-party verification that our methods are sound."

"The review of polling methodology is a necessary step in continuing to provide Minnesotans with the unbiased information they need to make informed decisions," said Chris Worthington, MPR's managing director of News.

Dean Brian Atwood of the Humphrey Institute added, "I welcome the opportunity to conduct this self analysis and peer review, a regular process for any academic institution. Professor Jacobs is an internationally recognized expert in this field. He is a professional who looks critically at his own work, as well as at polls conducted by others. We are committed to maintaining a very high standard."

Should the IP continue as a Party

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Well I am going to start with my opinion that the IP of Minnesota continue as a political party. There has already been much discussion about whether or not a 527 Organization would be a better fit for the existing IP. A 527 is a tax exempt organization created primarily to influence nominations, elections, or defeat of political candidates for office.

Moving to a 527 would free the IP from recruiting, fund raising, and doing many things that Political Parties do while giving them a free hand at looking at which candidates would be the best or most moderate view.

The first and most important problem/issue I see with this “whom is the party going to support?” As the Republicans party continues to move to the right and the DFL/Democratic party continues it weeblo wobbling about how far left the party can go, where will the moderate or middle of the road candidates come from.

I had a Political Science teacher use the example of teeter-totter to explain American Politics, on the Right you have the Republicans and on the left the Democrats and everyone else needs to decide which side of the fulcrum they need to sit on. That example probably worked fairly well in the 70’s and 80’s as a majority of the population considered themselves either Democrats or Republicans and parties boasted numbers in the 40% range. As parties increased in size the more left and right leaning aspects of the parties learned that they could gain much in being active early. Today those numbers that indicate the size of the parties has decreased to closer to 25% and even a smaller portion of the party is active.

Tom Horner was asked why he didn’t run as a moderate Republican in the Primary, but the answer is simple. As a man who was Republican for 25 years the party had moved and changed so much he was no longer a Republican in the current sense of the word. "They own the brand and as such the right to define what a Republican is." To paraphrase Tom Horner.

As the Democratic and Republican Party has moved over the years they have of coursed assimilated other parties that were to the left and right of their positions. In both cases it can be argued that what they assimilated became the dominant aspect of the party.

This of course leaves a very large hole in the middle of the political spectrum. If there is no Independence Party than there will be no candidates with anything that resembles a viable chance of succeeding as such no one to endorse or support.

That doesn’t mean however that a 527 is a bad idea, and I would hope that at least one such group is created to help work the middle of politics rather than the fringes that we in today’s political landscape.

Fair Warning

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

As I write, rant, blog, white board, brainstorm, and even publish my thoughts on the future of the Independence Party in Minnesota I will be the first person to tell you that my thoughts are not complete, are not finalized, and will be changing from today going forward as start putting them down on paper (in the blog). So what I say today could change by tomorrow, or next week, or three weeks from now, or…
I know that there are a small number of readers to this blog and it is my hope these thoughts help you formulate your own ideas, help you express your ideas, and hopefully provide a forum for others with similar inklings to maybe help me define my thoughts.

Before you can say this is what the Independence Party of Minnesota must do, you have to see if it has been tried before and whether or not it was successful. I forget who said this originally, but as a History Major I whole heartedly concur. When you look to the future you must understand the past for failure to do so creates a mandate that past mistakes will with all certainty be repeated.

After the humbling defeat in the 2010 Governor’s election much has been made on the future of the IP, should it continue as a party, should it become an 527 Political Entity, should it not endorse a candidate for 2012 Senator’s race, should it… The list of questions goes on and on and on. Makes one wonder if the DFL in Minnesota and Democrats nationally are asking the similar questions after the beating there party took at the polls.

Dayton meets with Past Finance Commissioners

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Pioneer Press Story


The former budgeteers were John Gunyou (under Republican Gov. Arne Carlson), Peggy Ingison (under GOP Gov. Tim Pawlenty), Jay Kiedrowki (under DFL Gov. Rudy Perpich) and Pam Wheelock (under IP Gov. Jesse Ventura).


It's interesting to see the list and thoughts that multiple perspectives could be present.

Veteran's Day

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

After watching the neighborhood children playing and pretending to be heroes of “Star Wars”, “Halo”, “Call to Duty” or even “Black Ops” I think about that cold and dreary day in the Northwest corner of France at precisely 11AM on Nov 11, 1918 the War to end all Wars came to an end. It was well before my time but the writing of the Soldiers, Sailors, Marines, and Airmen confirmed that they dreamed of day where children would not understand the concept of war, the same dream shared among servicemen throughout the world today. There dream like mine is not to be, not yet.

Millions have answered the call to service since that bloody morning and I have had the distinct honor to have served with some of the finest men and women you will ever have met. To my brothers and sisters I salute you. To friends and family who’s loved ones have never come home I wish I had words to explain their sacrifice, the ability to comfort you, the grace to provide the needed healing but my words would only be worthless and weak. I am reminded on this great day of a letter written nearly 150 years ago on November 26, 1864.

Mrs. Bixby, Boston, Massachusetts:
DEAR MADAM: I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant-General of Massachusetts that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle. I feel how weak and fruitless must be any words of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering to you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save. I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of freedom.
Yours very sincerely and respectfully,
Abraham Lincoln

On this day, a day we celebrate those that answered a higher calling, a day we acknowledge individuals who have place the needs of the many above the needs of the few or the one, a day we seek to understand why or how an individual is willing to put themselves upon the altar of freedom without as much as moment’s notice, the 11 day of the 11 month is a day we call Veteran’s Day. For those of us who served it is a day that provides Free Food, Free Tickets to a sporting event, free parking and most importantly a warm handshake and hearty thank you. But I will let you in on a little secret,to those us that served, everyday is Veteran’s Day a day we remember or friends, comrades, brother and sisters in arms. We remember the good times and the bad, the happiness and the sorrow, the reasons we volunteered and the reasons we would Never Again Volunteer Yourself.

To those that look upon an empty chair, an empty bed, a folded flag or a set of tin dog tags everyday is Memorial Day and we cannot begin to express enough gratitude for your sacrifice.

Star Tribune Editorial on IRV

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Link

Last week's election strengthened the argument for using ranked-choice voting in Minnesota elections -- even as GOP wins in the Legislature weakened the likelihood that Minnesotans will soon be able to vote for state offices by ranking candidates in order of preference.

That's the irony that confronts advocates of a switch to a ballot that allows ranked-choice voting rather than forcing voters to choose only one candidate in a multicandidate field.

For the fourth time in a row, Minnesota has elected a governor who did not win a majority of the votes cast. That will be true regardless of whether DFLer Mark Dayton retains his current unofficial lead of about 8,700 votes or Republican Tom Emmer overtakes him in a recount that now appears unavoidable. The 12 percent share of the vote captured by the Independence Party's Tom Horner assures a less-than-majority outcome for the eventual winner of this close election.

MNIP Blog Going Forward

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

I have been blogging about the Independence Party and Middle of the Road Politics in Minnesota for going on eight years. Having moved to my current URL four years ago, I like the IP of MN have spent some time recently thinking about the future of the blog and what I should be doing. I have looked at my posting habits and number of readers. It is surprising to see some of the statistics on my “viewer” ship when I looked at the analytics, surprised to see 54 regular readers and typically 100 or so irregular readers.

One of the clear problems when blogging about IP is the fact during elections I have lots to write about, and this year’s governor’s race is no exception. Of the 100 or so posts I made on the 2010 Governor’s race I had/have another 200 that were ideas or comments that never made it past the draft stage. But for the next year plus I may only have six or seven topics that relate directly to the focus of the Blog, I have been afraid the blog would become the rantings of a disenfranchised moderate republican if I wrote about everything that comes to mind.

The next problem, which is very similar to the first problem, a Party without elected officials at a State Legislative or State Executive really doesn’t give you a lot of people to talk to generate new content. Without new content your readers tend to disappear almost as fast as those non-existent postings appear (dang I hope that makes sense.)

My final problem is technological based, shocking as it may seem since I work in the IT field for my day job, I have lots of problems with PCs and my laptop. Heck somehow I managed to block MS Word from publishing today. Considering I managed to delete everything on the 2008 Senate Election off the blog. That is something I have to do a much better job at, including maybe even my own hosted service.

After much thinking and discussion with people I am going to post more, not necessarily about people but about topics. I currently have 137 draft topics that include everything from getting first time voters involved to senior citizens voting and my goal will be to get one of those topics finished a week, at least. In addition I am going to provide a few disenfranchised moderate republican comments. I mean it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that some of the “Tea Party” positions are at best baseless, let alone fabrications. I think it James Carville who once said, “Sometimes when you tell a lie often enough it becomes truth.”

I am also going to try and speak with people who have been involved with the Independence Party or general politics over the coming year. Tim Penny, Peter Tharaldson, Tom Horner, Jack Uldrich, Jim Moore, Steven Wilson, Bob Anderson, Amy Moore, and the list goes on and on.

In addition I am going to look closely at party building, how can a grassroots party like the IP become better equipped for fundraising and appearances to move the party forward. In other words how does the party improve it grassroots mechanism and its fundraising capacity.

I could write more on a variety of topics, heck I have added three draft ideas to my list since starting this letter.

You have ideas or thoughts; drop me an email at mnip-blog@hotmail.com, heck I would love to hear what topics people think are important.

V/r Jeff

Tom Horner appears on MPR

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Link

For those of you who don't regularly listen to MPR this is a great interview with Tom Horner with really a honest conversation rather than the bigger spin you normally get with candidates. (That doesn't mean there isn't spin but rather a candid discussion).

First Obama volley post Elections

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Multiple News sources are reportingthat the Obama administration is seeking return on Stimulus money "earmarked" for high speed rail project; some of the money could already have been spent.

In some post-election hardball between the Obama administration and
newly-elected Republicans, Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood is threatening to
take back stimulus funds from states if they do not follow through on proposed
rail projects.


As a supporter of High Speed rail, I chuckled, because if the incoming Republican Governors in Wi and Ohio didn't see this coming.

Add to it that the Obama administration is asking New Jersey for the $300 million it already spent on the ARC Tunnel Project, it looking like this is going to be rough going for the incoming class.

Tom Horner's Posting on Facebook

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Posted on the Tom Horner Facebook Page

Libby and I are very grateful for all the good wishes that have been sent our way. We also have been reaffirmed in our belief that there is a strong center to Minnesota public policy and politics. Once we finish wrapping things up on the 2010 campaign, we will work with those interested to craft the next steps. Stay tuned -- and keep sharing your thoughts here.


There already has been some suggestion that Tom will stay involved with the IP and even some speculation that he might be the first Executive Director, something long overdue with the party.

The long Gone Center

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

The Pioneer Press and Dispatch posted a story by Steven Thomma about the Conservative and Moderate Democrats being ousted in the Mid-Term Elections.

In Minnesota Politics we saw the same thing; here in Woodbury ousted Moderate Democrats Marsha Swails and Kathy Saltzman typify what was the Republican Game Plan in the elections.

Without these Moderates or Conservative Democrats I have wondered how the Republicans can even imagine working across the aisle, and without the ability to work across the aisle, will this just be a two year blip? Where the Conservative Republicans just elected get ousted in Two Years because they will now be the source of Grid-Lock. If Dayton and Obama look at what Clinton did during his administration and take on his triangulation method. It will be either a very short or long two years for the Republicans.

Throwing Away Votes - Another Bloggers View

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

From the Blog "Old and in the Way" a discussion about throwing away your votes.

Except Tom Emmer. Tom Emmer, in contrast, is a strong and very conservative candidate. Make that very conservative and given the united front that Republicans have in this state, Tom emerged from the party convention with an endorsement and unopposed by any real competition. Tom energized the base, pledged allegiance to the Tea Party and the Bachmann conservatives and really was a guy we Liberals are terrified off. When his endorsement was final, my reaction was “he’s unelectable, he’s an ideologue”. I will admit that Tom Emmer is a much more honest choice than Dayton, he leaves little doubt as to his agenda and his positions, it’s just his positions are way out on the extreme, both on social issues and finances.

It is a pretty good piece.

Emmer's Steep hill

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

From Minnesota Public Radio

Republican Tom Emmer will have a hard time finding enough votes to overcome Democrat Mark Dayton's lead in the governor's race, recount attorneys and election law experts said Thursday.

Emmer trails Dayton by 8,774 votes, but there would have to be widespread, systematic errors for Emmer to overcome the deficit either during the certification process or a recount, said Guy Charles, a law professor at Duke University.

A well intended article

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Bill Salsbury and Mary Jo Webster of the St. Paul Pioneer Press write about Tom Horner's presence leading to Mark Dayton's presumed victory.


In general, Jacobs said, Emmer got fewer votes than Pawlenty did in 2006 because Horner fared better than his IP predecessor, Peter Hutchinson.
Unfortantely this argument loses all validity once you start looking at How Tim Penny, the IP Candidate in 2002, did in comparison to Tom Horner in 2010.

Take Sterns County for example in 2002/2006/2010:
Republican 50/55/50
IP 15/5/12
Democrat 30/37/36

In 2002 if the argument presented were correct than Roger Moe would have won the election because Tim Penny recieved a higher percentage of votes than Tom Horner.

GOP prepares for the Recount

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

MN Public Radio

Before the GOP gets to far ahead of itself it going to need to wait for the Certified total. Considering those totals and the preliminary totals change by roughly 2 to 3 thousand on average, a net gain of 1450 by Dayton will put the total outside of the .5 % range and require teh GOP to pay for the Recount.

At least we have something to talk about.

What an incredible Article

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Not to be missed in the MinnPost


While it has consistently retained its “major party status” on the strength of gaining at least 5 percent of voters in a statewide race — and while IP
candidate Jesse Ventura won the governorship in 1998 with 38 percent of the vote
— can the IP burst out of its tiny silo?


A very important question that been asked and reasked over the years.

However most article stop at that point, Jay Weiner instead takes us into the issues that are facing the IP.

But the party apparatus and treasury has barely grown, with Uldrich allowing that there are today about 5,000 Minnesotans who consider themselves IPers, with about 500 statewide activists.


Jay even focused on the Legislative Races
While the IP ran an extensive slate of candidates, even those that Uldrich and other party faithful thought might do well in legislative races, didn’t. The IP ran seven state Senate candidates and 10 House candidates. Of those 27 challengers, two scored higher percentages in their races than Horner did in his. The rest were in single digits.

“It needs to be more focused," Carlson said of the IP.


All in all an extremely well and though provoking article.

What Votes are Left

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Officially from the Secretary of State's Office there are total votes in precincts of 27,000 registered voters, with an estimated 59% turnout that leaves approximately 16,000 votes yet to be counted. Emmer needs to win 87% of those votes to be the winner, Dayton needs 65% of those votes to put the election out of the "recount" category. Considering there are a couple of Big Dayton Precincts left to report it is possible but I think we are headed to a recount.

Your First Instincts

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

I created a good number of models to look at how the Governor's race would work out. My First Model (#001) had a low voter turnout and a moderate lean away from center. It was a only a test on how you model Election results based up poll data and since it was a model not really supported by the polls I ignored it.

Model 001 – Low Turn Out (2,037,000), Dayton 43%, Horner 14%, Emmer 41%, however my comments:

Modeling a polarized vote is difficult because rather than looking a linear pattern you must use a weighted bell curve adjusting the weight of the votes based upon their location in the individuals candidates spectrum as well as along the overall spectrum.

Because of rounding this would be the closest situation for Emmer to win the election. When I worked on the weighted bell curve later I used 13.00527 as the percentage for Horner and 40.01761 and 2 percent voting for other parties.

I kept looking back at this model and saying something about it was correct.

Had I applied my later weighted bell curve to model, Dayton wins by 12,000 votes. Dayton's current lead is around 10,000 votes depending on which source you read, with DFL leaning precincts in Aitkin, Cass, Kandiyohi, and St. Louis Counties to report.

I never thought in a million years we would have turnout below 2.1 million voters, officially the count stands at 2.06 million voters. My second lowest model has 2.16 million voters and most of my models had 2.24 to 2.47 million votes. Guess that is why I do this as a hobby.

First thoughts in the AM

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

I am throughly stunned at the Republican take over of the State House and Senate. with such huge and commanding leads in both houses going into the night I am not sure anyone saw that as a possibility. In my home districts 56B and 56, I was completely shocked to see both the well liked Swails and Saltzman, both DFL, defeated.

chip Cravaak's win in the 8 CD is also stunning with most polls indicating Oberstar with a commanding lead two weeks ago, so much so little money was dumped into the race by either side.

I am surprised that Emmer is as close as he is in the Governor's race. I'll look later to see where the missing precincts are to see if the gap will close, but ...

it's clear that all of the soft support that Horner had built up vanished on election night, once in the booth the 5 to 10 percent decided a vote for Horner is a vote for the winner and they went on to select the lesser of two evils.

Horner concedes.

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

To who we don't know yet.

How's it breaking down

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

There is little question that all soft support has left the Horner campaign as the first results come in.

I have figured Horner would come in with 15 to 18 percent of the vote but it now appears that he will the 10 to 12 percent range.

The question becomes where does the 3 to 8 percent of the vote go since it has left Horner. Without exit polling we may not know exactly where it going, but early results suggest most went to Emmer. it will be interesting to watch the final results tomorrow.

Update on Where the Votes will Fall

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Based upon reports of Voter Turnout, some slight poll adjustments, my final guess-estimate

63

Dayton

Horner

Emmer

Leans Republican

951278.7

453648.1

830802.2

Slightly Republican

974806.6

500806.3

839969.5


 

I think those numbers for Horner is a bit high but Emmer's and Dayton's should be really close.

For those tracking I have 20 models representing voter turnout and how those voters tend to lean. The final change is a based upon higher than expected turnout in the Cities (DFL Strong Holds) and moderate to High in the Exurbs.

Not good news for the Republicans

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

At least in Minnesota.

It will be interesting to hear what the pundants say about voter turnout later in the day.

From what I am hearing and what is being reported else where; Early this morning there was a strong voter turnout in the more conservative areas but it has tappered off before lunch. While voter turnout was light in the Liberal leaning areas however it has been building and continues to be moderate to high in terms of turnout there.

I have heard from several sources about 1/2 hour or longer waits in multiple precints in Hennepin and Ramsey County, yet it is walk up and ghost towns in greater Washington County.

In coresponding with some friends around the country similiar patterns are showing up elese where. However it's early in the day and the easy access to absentee ballots may change many vote outcomes.

Letter from the MN IP Executive Committe

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Dear Friends,

Let's face it, we cannot afford another four years of spinning our wheels while Democrats and Republicans dig Minnesota deeper and deeper into debt.

Neither Mark Dayton or Tom Emmer have offered balanced, common sense solutions to move this state forward. Their band-aid proposals do nothing to improve the overall problems facing Minnesotans.

It's time to take back our state!

The greatest service you can do for your families and your communities is to get out and vote on Tuesday, November 2! For those who feel their voice no longer counts - I will only remind you of every voter who stood up for REAL change in November 1998, when you decided to do what was right for the State of Minnesota.

No one thought it could be done. Let's do it again.

Join us tonight at Midway Stadium in St. Paul at 9:30 p.m. when the Horner Rally Buses pull back in to St. Paul from a day of gathering with supporters throughout the state. Tom Horner, Jim Mulder, Sen. Dave Durenberger will be on hand with many others to fire up our Party into taking a stand tomorrow.

Spread the word and join us tonight:

Midway Stadium
1771 Energy Park Drive
St. Paul, MN 55108
(gates open at 8:30 p.m. Concessions will be open)

We hope you will join us for this exciting event tonight - but most important, we hope you will help us make history tomorrow. Vote for your Independence Party, vote for Tom Horner for Governor, and for more information our slate of candidates throughout the state, visit: www.mnip.org.

As always, we are grateful for your continued support. Tomorrow is election day. Now, let's get it done.

with best regards,
Executive Committee
Independence Party of Minnesota

Could Survey USA be any less accurate

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Survey USA Polling Data from KSTP Poll

Wow, just when you thought SurveyUSA couldn't provide "less accurate" data they prove they can.


 

I am going to assume it's weighted to give 50% Men and 50% woman. The odds of that happening are pretty unlikely; however if they weighted it why not go with 52% women and 48% men to match what normally turns out to vote. Oh yeah since women favor Democrats over Republicans...

35% republican okay a little high but with such a small sample size we are talking a couple of respondents. 35+33+39=98 where is the other 2% you can't lose that in rounding.

Okay this one gets me 35% Republican which is a little high and 27% support of Tea Party. Those numbers need to be closer together. Again a small sample size where six people can change the results but....

86% of those surveyed vote in the Midterm elections, since this is a poll of likely voters for a Midterm election, does that seem correct to you?

53% of likely voters are college grads according to this survey. Considering Minnesota only has 28% college grads does that seem correct to you? Maybe the question was misrepresented because 55% of Minnesotans have some post secondary education.

The income question is another that is interesting, Minnesota has a Median income of $52K, so for only 32% to be more than $50K is an issue. That isn't one or two people in a sampling error that flat out wrong.

Here is my favorite; 94% of respondents are white, while Minnesota is mostly white it still has a 15% minority population. They simply cannot all be not-likely voters.

I won't get into the region of the State issue since in this survey it is either over represented or under represented depending on your definition of what is the Twin Cities Region.


 

Clearly this survey was directed at potential respondents who have a certain ideological view, can you guess who?

 

Letter to the Editor

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Carlos Mariani DFL member of the Minnesota House who is seeking reelection in St. Paul wrote a letter to the Editor of the Minneapolis Star Tribune concering losing his AFL-CIO endorsement.

But I did not expect to lose major labor endorsement for trying to serve
children better. I now don't know whether losing labor's support will affect my
chances of chairing the committee again.
Representative Mariani is the chair of the Minnesota House K-12 Policy Committee and has supported annual review of teachers, principals and other staff, alternative licensing, and new ways to train teachers.

I also led efforts to create a new alternative pathway to earning a teaching license that would allow high-quality programs like Teach for America to help Minnesota close the achievement gap. I had hoped for union support; instead they
fought it. Some union officials vigorously criticized us.
I am not a huge fan of the statewide Teacher's Union, Education Minnesota, but that doesn't mean that I am not a supporter of individual teachers. Rather the opposite is true, I have first hand seen what ONE teacher can do. Unfortunately I have seen the other end of the spectrum when a Teacher's Union protects a bad (that's being unkind to the word bad) teacher.

When I have spoken to Union representatives they believe it is a "witchhunt" and tell thier membership that hundreds thousands of jobs are at risk, which is so untrue. This is a means to identify the one or two bad teachers in an entire district and suggest they find employment in another field. So while this number might reach a hundred statewide in its first look it sure isn't going to continue at that level.

I have also suggested that since we have a state wide union maybe we should have a statewide teacher contract and "statewide" school system. But the latter may be too extreme.

Another questionable poll

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

I guess its not surprising that a kstp poll states that Dayton and Emmer are tied at 39 percent.

Not surprising KSTP had to try and defend their poll before they even announced the results. Claiming accuracy that almost unmatched, yet they failed to mention that the AP will not acknowledge the results. I guess they are so accurate.

Interesting Discussion on the validity of the Polls

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Yahoo! News has posted a story about polls going wild. As I have been an avid poll follower over the years I have a great love hate relationship with them.

In many cases I am reminded of Tim Penny's sudden drop in the polls with two weeks remaining that seemed to be unrealistic when compared to all the other polls of the time, however since it was published by the Minneapolis Star Tribune people really believed it was accurate. Tim Penny lost his volunteers and has slow but steady donations cease to exist.

This year Rasmussen published a series of polls which I think everyone who has ever study polling data agrees are hog wash but because news sources (AP excluded) gobble them up people really believe they are accurate.

I think maybe that will be something I work on expanding, getting the Local News Sources to not report on any poll done by automated means, KSTP I am talking to you.

How the votes will fall

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Over the past week I have spent some time looking at models for the upcoming election and unless Dayton does something stupid, which isn't out of the realm of possibilities in Minnesota Politics, there is virtually no chance that he can be defeated.

My model takes several things in to consideration.

  • 2% of the voters will be voting for another "third" party, be it Green, Libertarian, Communist or other.
  • 40% of the voters currently favor Democratic Party Candidate Mark Dayton, with 1/3 of his support in the soft category.
  • 15% of the voters currently favor Independence Party Candidate Tom Horner, with ½ of his support in the soft category.
  • 35% of the voters currently favor Republican Party Candidate Tom Emmer, with ¼ of his support in the soft category.
  • 8% of the voters are undecided.


 

The variable of voter participation can have three responses; a Low Turn Out, a Moderate Turn Out, and a Heavy Turn Out. A Low turnout generally favors the incumbent as voter dissatisfaction drives people to the poll, while a high turnout usually favors the challenger. Of course with no incumbent and three major parties those rules generally don't apply.

  • In looking at past elections I focused on the voter turnout in two key counties, Hennepin (the most populous country) and St. Louis County (Key to the canoe vote). Both Counties had high voter turnout for the primaries, much high than expected, the question is are those voters still engaged and will you get a similarly high turnout in General Election. So I looked at the local races (State Representative and Senate and the Congressional Races.) and determined that you most likely will see a low to moderate voter turnout in Hennepin County and Moderate turnout in St. Louis County. With the same concept the Sixth Congressional District might have a high turnout with the race for Bachmann and Clark, but I suspect low turnout to be the rule. With approximately 2.1 million votes cast out of 3 plus million eligible voters.


     

The next potent variable is which way the state is leaning; Democrat (Left) or Republican (Right). For the purpose of this discussion I put five distinctly different zones; Firmly Democrat, Moderately Democrat, No Lean, Moderately Republican and Firmly Republican.

  • While in general I think Minnesota is Moderately Democrat but the real question to me was what will the voters be when they step into voting booth. Since I suspect places like Democrat Leaning Hennepin County and St. Louis County to have low to Moderate Turnout while Republican Leaning counties of Washington, Chisago, and others in the CD6 to have higher turnout I believe that Moderate Republican is the better model.

When I look at the numbers in this model Dayton receives between 865,000 and 951,000, Emmer 757,000 and 843,000 while Horner is in a distant third with 346,000 and 410,000.

My Predication as on Oct 28th, Dayton 894,000 votes, Emmer 785,000 votes, and Horner 389,000 votes.

  • It's depressing to write that. But this is Minnesota Politics and the numbers can change in heartbeat depending on the candidates last moves.

What could cause change?

  • Emmer is sitting a fairly large war chest at the moment and it is expected for him to launch a very seriously negative campaign against Dayton in the last week. While I had expected it to start a few days ago I have yet to see it materialize.
  • Emmer could make another one of his classic misstatements and mischaracterizations that have plagued him in the past. Wait staff making $100,000 a year anyone.
  • Dayton supposedly has very little in the war chest and lacks support from his own party. Since much of his campaign is self-funded it could be an issue if Emmer gains traction on an issue or two.
  • Dayton has done some seriously head scratching dumb things in his political career and it's not out of the question that he could do something dumb in the next week.

In looking at the three campaigns there is little questioning that Dayton has run the best plan. I have spent many hours wondering why Emmer's campaign has done this or that and I am left with the feeling that Emmer's Campaign is going to leave this election with virtually a fully loaded gun. When I look at Horner's campaign I am left wondering what could have been; had they attacked the two parties in August rather than late September and been more aggressive with first time voters… I guess more on this later.

Not Good News

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

The latest MPR/Humphrey Institute poll does little to reverse a continuing trend; support is leaning away from both Horner and Emmer.

Key Findings

• Dayton's lead rests on engaging Democrats, broadening his coalition more than Emmer, his economic populism, and localizing the election to capitalize on the unpopularity of Governor Tim Pawlenty.

• Dayton has the advantage among voters who are leaning toward a candidate but his support is not as firm as Emmer's and Horner's support is soft.

• Emmer's greatest opportunity is to reframe the election as a national referendum on President Barack Obama and the nation's direction.


 

Shock the World Again!

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Jesse Ventura, former Independence Party Governor is suggesting that we shock the world again.

Here is the story in the Pioneer Press.

Another Endorsement for Horner

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Former Republican Governor Al Quie has endorsed Tom Horner for Governor, read about it here.

Star Tribune Shows off new Horner Ads

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The Minneapols Star and Tribune provided a link to Tom Horner's two new TV ads.

MinnPost asks can Horner Capitalize

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

http://www.minnpost.com/stories/2010/10/18/22464/can_tom_horner_capitalize_on_spate_of_newspaper_endorsements

The key, says former IP gubernatorial candidate Tim Penny, is whether Horner's campaign has the resources to advertise the endorsements.

DFL Candidates Speaks out against Dayton’s Plan

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Not that it is shocking, considering how poorly thought out and inconceivable Dayton's plan is, but…

Minnesota Radio is reporting that many DFL Candidates are speaking out against Dayton's Plan to Tax the "crap" out of the Rich.

Minneapolis Star Tribune Endorses Tom Horner

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Well-prepared candidate gives Minnesotans the chance to stand up against polarization.

Read the Full Endorsement here

Horner presents voters with an opportunity they cannot afford to pass up. He possesses not only the understanding and communication skills that governing requires, but, unlike either DFLer Mark Dayton or Republican Tom Emmer, he also has the temperament to bridge the partisan divide that has long stymied the search for lasting solutions to chronic problems, both in Minnesota and the nation. For us, this choice is not a close call.

I well written endorsement.

Minnesota Hospitals PAC endorses Horner

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The Minnesota Hosptial's Politcal Action Committe today endoresed Tom Horner for Governor.

Is Horner scaring the GOP

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

With Halloween around the corner is GOP run scared of Tom Horner?

Current Governor Tim Pawlenty less than stupendous endorsement of Tom Emmer sure has me believing that is the case.

"Republicans of all stripes — moderate, conservative, and libertarian — agree with Tom Emmer's central principles: government must live within its means; we cannot raise taxes if we want to preserve existing jobs and create new jobs; and government must be reformed," Pawlenty wrote.

If that is the best you can say about Emmer, especially if you have been working to support his candidacy since the Endorsement that is not a ringing endorsement.

After calling Tom Horner a decent man Pawlenty Continued:

"Any Republican who votes for Tom Horner is not only helping (Democrat) Mark Dayton become governor, but casting a vote to undo the tax and spending cuts we've fought so hard for over the last 8 years," Pawlenty wrote.

You go back to last week's comments by GOP chairman Tony Sutton in reference to "Republicans who vote for Tom Horner":

"There's a special place in hell for these quislings."

There is little doubt that the Horner Campaign is gaining momentum with those that consider themselves moderate republicans. The endorsement by multiple members of the Moderate GOP is helping bring more people into the fold. If you think the GOP is scared now wait until Tom Horner cracks 20% in the polls.


Michele Bachmann's Future

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

While it pains me to say it I feel that Michele Bachmann will win this fall’s election for Congress in the 6th Congressional District. The real question is where does she go from here?

In 2012 will she be the Republican Candidate for US Senator against incumbent Amy Klobuchar? Will she be VIP candidate on someone’s ticket? Will she run for US Congress again?

The questions may be answered when the State of Minnesota's Congressional Districts are redrawn in 2011. If we assume that Minnesota keeps all eight seats in Congress (which seems pretty safe at the moment) than we know portions of the 6th Congressional District will be detached and joined with other districts as Washington County has made vast growth in populations over the past decade. While the Republicans would like to see a combined district for Minneapolis and St. Paul that will never (or should never) stand judicial overview. So the assumption is that a couple of State Legislative districts will shift from the 6th to the 4th. The real concern is whether or not those districts include Lake Elmo as well as Woodbury and heaven forbid Stillwater. While I doubt Stillwater will be lost unless there is a radical shift in district lines, but it isn’t out of the question. If Bachmann ends up a resident of the 4th CD, she will not run for Congress.

Congresswoman Bachmann is amassing a huge warchest, some estimates indicate she may be earning more than $37K a day in donations. It obvious she is not, heck she couldn’t even if she wanted to, spend that much on a CD election. My guess is she is preparing for a shot at US Senator. She will run basically unopposed in the Primary and with enough money could she defeat Senator Klobucher?
The problem with this is Klobucher has the highest approval rating of any US Senator and much like another former CD 6th Congressmen, it will be tough to win a State Wide election with her positions.

There is the possibility is Congresswoman Bachmann is looking to be the VP on someone’s ticket for US President, Dan Quayle to a conservative leaning George Bush. The question who’s ticket would this benefit? Looking at the first round of potential candidates he answer is Mitt Romney.

The final two possibilities I think are very low on the potential meter, not run for anything or go for the whole enchilada as US President.

With a geographically smaller 6th district and even the potential to be in the 4th district I don’t think she will run that campaign. The smaller 6th district will move from fairly conservative to a more moderate position with St. Cloud becoming much more a strong locale in the district. While a move to the 4th district basically eliminates any chance of victory. In either case a loss would end her political career.

IF Bachmann was challenging Franken for the US Senate seat I think it would be fairly easy to call where she would go, but rather she would be challenging the highly liked Klobuchar. However to put a monkey in the works many people believe that Tim Pawlenty is eyeing Franken’s seat and whether Bachmann likes it or not she would have a hard time winning that nomination. So it Klobuchar in two years or nothing.

So I would not be surprised to see Michele Bachmann angle for a VP on someone else’s ticket and like I said politically it makes sense for Mitt Romney to lock up the “Tea Party” caucus.

Real Clear Politics - Poll Average

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

RealClearPolitics.com


Dayton - 38
Emmer - 32
Horner - 17
Undecided - 13 percent

Trend for the last month
Dayton -5
Emmer +/- 0
Horner +7
Undecided -2

Rasmussen Poll - 10/08

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Well they got rid of the "leaners" but I wonder if they still have a similiar issue.

Dayton - 40%
Emmer - 38%
Horner - 15%


"In the Minnesota governor's race, Rasmussen Reports has made a decision not to
use our traditional leaners model. Normally, that model shows support falling
off for a third-party candidate. However, in Minnesota, third-party candidates
often defy that trend, and a look at the initial preference data suggests that
may be happening this year."



I find it interesting that Rasmussen continues to have a much smaller response for "undecided" than several other polls. With approximately 7% undecided this is less than half of a couple other polls.

Bachmann attacks Horner

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

At an EMPTY Conservative Rally at Orcherstra Hall in Minnepolis


"We can't let anyone tell us that Tom Horner is a pro-business Republican. This
is no pro-business Republican. This is two of the same, both pro-taxing,
essentially Democrats running against Tom Emmer," she said.



Link

Horner Article in Crookston Times

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Read the full article here

Crookston — Tom Horner, Independence Party candidate for Minnesota governor,
acknowledged during a visit to Crookston Thursday that he can sense a wave of
momentum swelling behind his campaign, whether it's newspaper endorsements or
media coverage. But, he was quick to add while speaking to about 15 people in
the city hall council chambers, being a candidate for office and traveling from
city to city and meeting to meeting can sometimes be an "out of body"
experience.




"There are days that I think every single person
in Minnesota is going to vote for me," Horner said. "Then there are other days
when I don't think I'd vote for myself."

Former GOP vets fire back at GOP

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

"Those of us who support Horner and his centrist view of governance have nothing in common with Norwegian politician Vidkun Quisling, a Nazi sympathizer who collaborated with the Germans to enslave millions of his countrymen during the Second World War,"


Pioneer Press Blog

Horner Picks up seven more endorsements

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Former North Dakota Gov. Allen Olson; University of Minnesota, Crookston
rural policy professor Jack Geller; former state Transportation Commissioner
Dick Braun; former Republican House Speaker and educator David Jennings; former
Taylor Corp. CEO Jean Taylor; University of St. Thomas professor emeritus Fred
Zimmerman, and former DFL Minneapolis City Council member Joan Niemiec said
Horner is the best candidate to overcome partisan differences and provide
leadership in their respective fields.



See the Pioneer Press Blog here.

Rasmussen Poll

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Okay is the ink dry from the primary.

You can read the details here.

Dayton - 45%
Emmer - 36%
Horner - 10%
Undecided - 10%

Okay being so much Media coverage of Dayton on the 11th and 12th probably account for the 5% bounce from a month ago.

Horner's First Commercial before the State Fair

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Tom Horner let slip today that the first commercial would air before the Minnesota State Fair (Aug 26).

Bill Crum joins the Horner Campaign.

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Team Horner recently hired “Communications Specialist” Bill Crum, a
recently laid off copy editor from the Star Tribune. Crum has been with the
paper for 10 years, also working as a night public safety team leader and editor
of Star Tribune South, a weekly suburban section. Before that, he spent 12 years
as the broadcast editor for the Associated Press in Portland, Oregon.

Crum will be in charge of writing news releases and manning the campaign
office at all times. That will give Horner’s Press Secretary, Matt Lewis, a
chance to travel more. “I want to get out in the field with Tom more and get a
sense on how he is handling his message,” Lewis said.

Lewis said he
needed someone who knows how to write and understands the media’s needs.

“I think that I offered a perspective of an experienced editor who
understands the needs of the media folks out there,” Crum said. “We want to do
everything we can to help Tom get his message out to readers and viewers.”

Crum joins Communications Director Lois West Duffy, Lewis, Coalitions
Director Marti Jones and Intern Colton Malkerson.

Mark Dayton calls for cease fire

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: ,

Not surprisingly DFL Candidate Mark Dayton is calling for a cease fire in the negative attack ads.
I hate to break this to you, it ain't happening. As mush as we despise and loath attacks add they work on the target group, undecided and those that may be waffling. And for Mark Dayton, a man who has many ghosts of politics past and personal demons he best get used to them because as long as he is perceived as being the front runner in the race they will be launched his way continually. He is best option would be to come out from his glass house and address the issues, he knows what they are, head on. The longer he stays in his house the more ads that will be lobbed his way.

As for Tom Horner's proclamation about not using them, the DFL and the GOP will be more than happy to do that.

Primaries Raise New Questions

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels:

Another semi off topic article in the Minneapolis Star Tribune that address some political issues.

Tuesday's primary elections produced a series of seemingly contradictory claims and interpretations: a good night for outsiders and the Tea Party movement, an equally good night for incumbents and President Obama. What it all means for November is the real question.

Has the anti-incumbent fever begun to break? Appointed Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet's victory in Colorado, coming after Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln's win in Arkansas two months ago, might be seen as evidence that it has -- except Democratic strategists don't think that's necessarily the case.

Is Tom the Better Republican

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

The Raabe Review asks is Tom Horner the Better Republican

Tom Horner is running for governor on Minnesota’s Independence Party ticket, but is he a better Republican than what the tea party has to offer? A native Minnesotan, Horner signed on to work for Dave Durenberger in 1978, and was his press secretary and chief of staff until 1985. U.S. Sen. Durenberger was a popular Republican whose three terms in the Senate began in a special election held after Sen. Hubert Humphrey passed away.

Although slightly off topic...

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Interesting Opinion Piece in Rochester Post Bulletin but slightly off topic.

A few months ago, the Post-Bulletin's editorial board had a meeting with Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner, who admitted that personality-wise, he's no Jesse Ventura. He also acknowledged that in an ordinary election year, he'd have no chance of victory in November.

But then he made this prediction: With Tom Emmer on the right, and Mark Dayton on the left, the middle will be wide open for anyone willing to stand in it.

First Negative Ad to Air starting Thursday

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from MPR

The state's Republican Party kicked off the first day of the general election campaign for governor Wednesday by announcing plans to air a TV ad attacking DFL nominee Mark Dayton.


I am actually surprized the GOP is waited this long, they must have some sort of money shortage. I say that because Dayton, while providing ample targets of oppertunity for negative attacks, is the strongest of the three major candidates from the DFL and the GOP had to see an easier road to election with either Entenza or Kelliher on the ticket.

I'm a sensible Choice

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from the Star Tribune

Horner, a well-connected public affairs consultant, gave a broad glimpse of his
fall campaign strategy and said he intends to appeal to "the 60 to 70 percent of
Minnesotans who have been pushed to the sidelines" by Dayton's liberal
philosophy and Emmer's conservative rhetoric. Horner plans to raise roughly a
third of the $2.5 million in campaign money he needs by the end of this month.
He minimized Dayton's and Emmer's popularity by saying the two candidates
resonated only with "partisans" who participate in the primary.

An Appeal to the Moderate Middle

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article in the St. Paul Pioneer Press

"The critical issue in 2010, in this campaign, is going to be leadership,'' said Horner, contending he's the only candidate that offers a balanced vision for voters tired of political gridlock and excessive partisanship.

"This cannot be a debate over the status quo,'' he added.

Horner defeated four Independence Party candidates in Tuesday's primary and will face Republican Tom Emmer and Democrat Mark Dayton in the general election.

So what do the numbers tell us?

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

In the 2002 Primary just under 40,000 people voted in the Independence Party Primary between Tim Penny/Martha Robertson and Bill Daun/Rome Hanson. A total of 481,294 people voted overall which represented 18.57% of the registered voters.

The initial results indicate 17,731 people voted in this year Independence Party Primary which was more highly contested, at least on paper, between Tom Horner/James Mulder and Rob Hahn/Tom Harens. A total of 589, 761 (plus) people voted overall representing 18.97% of registered voters.

Specifically what do those numbers tell us, well nothing and everything all at the same time. Since we are talking about such a small portion of the overall electorate you can almost draw any conclusion and that means it is for us "talking heads" to figure out what they mean and explain it to everyone.

In this year's primary just over 3% of the votes cast were for the Independence Party. That's slightly better or in line with results 1998 (2.6%), under 2002 results (8.3%) and more than 2006 result (2.3%). However if we look at 2002 we will note there is no large scale competition between any party, this year a feisty three way battle in the DFL raged. In 2006 again there were no major battles in other parties. In 1998 there was a feisty battle between Skip Humphrey, Mike Freeman, Doug Johnson, Mark Dayton, and Ted Mondale, sound familiar.

There are a lot of similarities to the 1998 election, no US Senate, no incumbent, a well known DFL candidate battling a rising star in the Democratic party. People in general fell disfranchised by the current political deadlock. So it is far to say we can use the 1998 election as a model.

Since 1998 Minnesota has not only seen a population growth but an overall increase in the percentage of people register as voters. There are a number of reasons for this, including the fast food like convenience of registering at the polls, the motor voter registration and other statistical changes to our demographics (living longer, fewer children, so on and so forth). If we use 1998 as our model that means 2.6 million people will vote for our next governor, an increase of 400,000 over the 2006 elections. Assuming that number is correct with 2.6 million votes at stake what will it take to win?

900,000 votes. Peter Hutchinson suggested that 1 million votes would win the 2006 election, I think in 2010, without another major election (US Senate) occurring that number may be as low as 900,000 votes.

What we need to watch for as we move forward, Tom Horner's polling numbers. For argument sake we will say he is at 10 percent, if he is still sitting at 10 percent come Sept 15th he will be a non-factor in the election; however if he continues to pull bigger numbers even a percentage point increase a week the momentum will build towards election.

Another telling sign will be how the Republican Candidate acts towards Horner's campaign. In 2006 Tim Pawlenty's campaign simply ignored the Hutchinson Campaign thus reducing the "free air-time" effect. The current Republican campaign cannot do that. At some point they will need to take the gloves off and refer to Tom by name. The moment that happens it will be almost a two point bump to Horner's campaign. Right now the Emmer Campaign needs to address the issue of taking on a well known name in the DFL. I suspect the gloves will come off early in that battle, say at the First Debate on August 13th.

The money issue, which is driven by the first two issues, is obviously the most important issue. It is easier to raise money as you move up in the polls than staying stagnant or declining and the more personal the opposing parties (notably the Republican Party because they are behind right now) the easier it is to raise money.

So the numbers tell me that we are looking at a similar situation to 1998 and that is a good thing if you are supporter of the IP.

Emphysizing leadership

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

An Article in the Coon Rapids paper Emphsizes Tom Belief in Leadership

Horner, who readily defeated Independence Party gubernatorial candidate Rob Hahn and other IP rivals last night in the primary, at a Capitol press conference spoke of the election being about leadership.

“This cannot be a debate over the status quo,” he said.

Claiming the Middle and What is Tom Thinking

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

From MPR

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner is in a fairly strong position. He has almost sole claim to "the middle" in a general election of two candidates on the far end of their party's philosophy. He may be the first candidate, likely trailing in a three-way race, to act like a long-time incumbent.
The day after election night, Horner rejected every media invitations for free air time. WCCO's TV coverage this morning pointed out that it invited Horner to appear for a live interview and he rejected the invitation. "His loss," reporter Pat Kessler intoned. He's right. Normally, when you get free media time, you take it.

Horner scheduled a news conference this morning, and scheduled it well before the polls closed last evening. It's at 11:30 this morning. In Mankato.

Horner's message is clear: "I'll talk about the election on my terms." Fine. But MPR is not likely to provide live coverage of a news conference and neither are local TV stations. So why give up free airtime to get your name and face "out there"? I don't have an answer other than pure speculation that Horner intends to be the frontrunner merely by acting like one. He is, afterall, a public relations expert.

If we can make all the oil in the Gulf disappear, merely by saying "it's gone," who's to say the strategy won't work?

Horner cruises to victory

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

It appears that Tom Horner has cruised to an easy victory in the Primary. With 25% of the precincts reporting he has a 5,000 vote lead. At this stage Rob Hahn would need almost six out of seven votes cast that are not reported yet to overtake Tom Horner.

I stated a couple times earlier in the week that Tom was probably a runaway winner. I was worried going into last week that there would be a lot closer race, but it after a few appearances and when Rob Hahn reverted back to some old attack tactics I decided it was not even close.

Quick article from Winona

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

Article from Winona Radio Stations

Still, Horner has caused anxiety among Republicans who fear the former public relations director could chew into conservative state Rep. Tom Emmer's base. Emmer coasted to a win in the GOP primary Tuesday and is trying to extend Republicans' eight-year hold on the governor's office.

Tom Horner’s Open Letter to MN Forward

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

MINNEAPOLIS, Aug. 6 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- The following is being released by Horner2010:

Dear Brian:

Here I am.

MN Forward is seeking to support candidates of any stripe who are pro-business. That's me. In fact, I think I am the MOST pro-business candidate in this year's gubernatorial race.  Of course, maybe we define pro-business a bit differently. I think a pro-business candidate is one who supports an economic environment in which start-up businesses can flourish, well-paying jobs are being created in the private sector, and Minnesota is seen as a great place for all businesses -- those already here and those we want to attract -- because it's a great place to live.

You see, I think the business climate in Minnesota isn't just about which candidate will cut spending the most or who has the most strident anti-tax rhetoric. But for Minnesota to flourish -- for ALL Minnesotans to do well -- the state needs the kind leadership that successful business leaders understand: the importance of investing in people and making our state one in which the hard work of all people is rewarded, the talents of everyone are respected and the opportunities for all people are not capped by prejudice.

So here's my pro-business agenda:

  • Balance the budget. This will take hard decisions and significant spending cuts. It also will take the discipline other candidates have lacked to say NO to special interests, even if YES might buy some short-term political cover. 
  • Reform a tax system that is out-of-date and suppresses job creation. I am the only candidate who is proposing a comprehensive package of tax reform -- reducing taxes on job creation while raising the revenue needed to invest in Minnesota's future.
  • Invest in Minnesota's future. We will be the knowledge state in my administration -- a state that makes early learning a priority so that all children enter school prepared for success. We will invest in lifelong learning, from cradle to grave. Along with education, Minnesota needs to once again make smart investments in health and our state's infrastructure.  It was noteworthy that at FarmFest -- talking to the drivers of one of our state's most important industries -- I was the only candidate who highlighted the need to invest in rail and 10-ton roads. A great harvest (or great manufactured products or great anything) loses its value if we can't get it to market.
  • Make applied and basic research at the University of Minnesota and our other institutions of higher learning a state priority. Minnesota must be a leader in innovation, new ideas and cutting-edge technologies. If we follow my tax proposals, research becomes the engine for ideas to come to market creating Minnesota businesses and Minnesota jobs. 
  • Revitalize our communities. I've proposed a five-point plan to strengthen Minnesota's rural communities, making sure that every person in every community has the opportunity to prosper.
  • Streamline the regulatory and permitting process. In my administration, every permit request will be resolved in six months. Guaranteed.
  • Attract the best talent pool in the nation. Ultimately, Minnesota's greatest strength -- and our greatest pro-business asset -- are our people. We need to be a state that welcomes diversity.


     

    That's my agenda, and I'm eager to compare it to the Minnesota agenda of any other candidate.

    Sincerely,

    Tom Horner

    Prepared and paid by Horner2010

    SOURCE Horner2010

Fox 9 News / Rasmussen Reports Poll – 7/20

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

The latest Fox 9 News / Rasmussen Reports poll shows all three DFL Candidates leading both Tom Emmer and Tom Horner.

 

Fox 9 Questions

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , , ,

Fox 9 News posed 9 questions to all major candidates and posted their responses this morning.

Tom Horner and Rob Hahn

Dean Barkley - Email

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson Labels: , ,

DEAN M. BARKLEY
UNITED STATES SENATOR

Dear Fellow Independence Party Supporter,
I am reaffirming and announcing my official endorsement for Tom Horner, Independence Party candidate for Governor.
First, I support Tom Horner because I feel he has the best solutions to resolving the massive budget deficit the state faces this next biennium. Tom offers the most comprehensive plan to balance the budget and create a more favorable environment for jobs in Minnesota. He is committed to improving the educational system in our state through sufficient funding and by empowering competent teachers in their classrooms.
Today, Tom Horner announced an innovative Community Vitality Program to help create jobs throughout Minnesota, allowing our children to remain in their hometown communities if they choose. Healthy economic communities means healthy local school systems and a healthy state overall. Fixing our budget and our state requires a comprehensive plan, not just easy slogans like "tax the rich" or "cut the budget."
Our next governor cannot accomplish these goals by coming too far from the right or left. Democrats and Republicans are staked in keeping the other from being successful. Only an independent leader will be able to break through the political gridlock to enact the types of initiatives we need to move "Four Years Forward."
JULY 19 – Public Subsidy Deadline
Monday, July 19th is the last day a candidate for state office can qualify for public financing. By sending Tom a contribution today you can put him over the top and make him eligible to receive an additional $450,000 in public subsidy funds from the state. This money is vital for cutting through messages Republicans and Democrats will saturate the airwaves with this fall. I need you to make your secure online contribution now by going to www.Horner2010.com.
AUGUST 10 – Primary Election
You have the opportunity to "Send A Message" to incumbents by voting for Tom in the August 10 primary election. Every vote counts, and the greater the support for Tom, the louder the message that Minnesotans are ready for change.
If you are not available to vote on August 10, visit the Secretary of State’s web site and download an absentee ballot. Make your voice heard by voting now. Or vote on August 10 and be certain to cast your Independence Party ballot for the most qualified, honest and ethical candidate running for governor this year, Tom Horner.
I am proud to offer my endorsement to Tom Horner for Governor. He stands for the common sense solutions that we need to balance our state’s budgets, reduce the state’s deficit, and get our state back on its feet. We cannot sit back and take four more years of legislative inaction. Take action today! I look forward to seeing many of you again along the campaign trail.
Sincerely,
U. S. Senator Dean Barkley

Tom Horner visits Menahga

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

It is not very often that a gubernatorial candidate takes the time to visit the folks in towns between the county seats in our area, but this past weekend Independence Party candidate Tom Horner and his son Kevin took the opportunity to meet and greet people at numerous community events in Wadena, Hubbard, Otter Tail and Cass counties. Their schedule included a parade and community picnic in Pelican Rapids, a meet-and-greet event in Park Rapids, touring the tornado damage and cleanup in Wadena, a Sunday morning pancake breakfast in Menahga, and the pig races Sunday afternoon in Nevis. (By the way, the "Independent" pig won the Governor's Race against the porkers in Democratic and Republican clothes.)

A tour of the school facilities was supposed to be part of his visit to Menahga on Sunday, but apparently miscommunication resulted in school officials and the candidate not connecting. Horner made the best of the situation by remaining at the Senior Citizens Community Center to visit with people enjoying the Gateway Lions Pancake Breakfast and to talk with the media.

Tom Horner is a Republican-turned-Independence Party candidate running for the office of governor. His father, Jack Horner, was one of Minnesota's first radio and television personalities.


 

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Pioneer Press – Horner Lays out plan for slimming the budget

Posted by Jeffrey Johnson

Independence Party candidate Tom Horner offered a series of initiatives Thursday that he said would create jobs and revitalize local communities.

But Horner and his running mate, Jim Mulder, didn't put price tags on their broad-based mix of tax breaks and spending proposals, saying those would be worked out later.

At a St. Paul news conference, Horner outlined what he described as the first of a series of efforts aimed at turning around the fortunes of the state, which is looking at another multibillion-dollar budget deficit. Under questioning, he said he also would consider capping tax deductions that homeowners can claim.

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